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Sha Tin · 2024-06-15 · 08:02

Race 1

Griffin YIELDING 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-15 was Griffin over 1000m, run on YIELDING going. KARATE EXPRESS, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with KA YING RESILIENCE second and SANTORINI third. The 3.0 favourite KA YING RESILIENCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 KARATE EXPRESS 0.57.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 15.0 1
2 7 KA YING RESILIENCE TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 3.0 1
3 4 SANTORINI CP K Teetan · F C Lor 3 7.2 1-3/4
4 10 PATCH OF COSMO L Ferraris · K L Man 9 9.8 2-3/4
5 2 CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 2 22.0 3
6 11 RUN YES RUN CP E C W Wong · C W Chang 14 3.0 3-1/2
7 1 CALIFORNIA BANNER CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 8 85.0 7-1/4
8 3 LORD OF THE ROSE K H Chan · W Y So 13 139.0 7-3/4
9 13 SOLAR RIVER TT1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 25.0 8-1/2
10 12 SMILING EMPEROR CP1 H Bentley · K H Ting 11 50.0 8-1/2
11 14 SUPREME WINNER K C Leung · C H Yip 7 120.0 10-1/4
12 5 SMART ZIPANG B/TT B Thompson · W Y So 6 134.0 11
13 9 NEW ASIA GREAT K De Melo · D A Hayes 4 78.0 14-1/4
14 6 ANGELIC CP1/XB1/TT1 A Atzeni · D J Whyte 12 11.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARATE EXPRESS2. KA YING RESILIENCE+1L3. SANTORINI+1.75L4. PATCH OF COSMO+2.75L5. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+3L6. RUN YES RUN+3.5L7. CALIFORNIA BANNER+7.25L8. LORD OF THE ROSE+7.75L9. SOLAR RIVER+8.5L10. SMILING EMPEROR+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING RESILIENCE (29.1%) finished 2nd — the winner KARATE EXPRESS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 KA YING RESILIENCE 29.1% 3.43 2
2 4 SANTORINI 18.6% 5.36 3
3 11 RUN YES RUN 10.8% 9.28 6
4 2 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 8.4% 11.86 5
5 8 KARATE EXPRESS 6.2% 16.13 1
6 9 NEW ASIA GREAT 5.4% 18.61 13
7 12 SMILING EMPEROR 4.9% 20.30 10
8 6 ANGELIC 4.5% 22.42 14
9 10 PATCH OF COSMO 4.3% 23.49 4
10 13 SOLAR RIVER 3.4% 29.61 9
11 1 CALIFORNIA BANNER 2.8% 35.31 7
12 14 SUPREME WINNER 0.6% 154.75 11
13 5 SMART ZIPANG 0.5% 208.54 12
14 3 LORD OF THE ROSE 0.5% 219.26 8
KA YING RESILIENCESANTORINIRUN YES RUNCALIFORNIA MOXIEKARATE EXPRESS — wonNEW ASIA GREATSMILING EMPERORANGELICPATCH OF COSMOSOLAR RIVERCALIFORNIA BANNERSUPREME WINNERSMART ZIPANGLORD OF THE ROSE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 151.5

PLACE

4 19.5

7 14.5

8 37.5

QUINELLA

7,8 276.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 47.5

4,8 143

7,8 88.5

FORECAST

8,7 637

TIERCE

8,7,4 3,474

TRIO

4,7,8 413

FIRST 4

4,7,8,10 723

QUARTET

8,7,4,10 21,883