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Sha Tin · 2024-06-15 · 10:02

Race 5

Class 4 SOFT 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on SOFT going. CAPTAIN WIN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with BALLISTIC WIN second and FUN N FUN TOGETHER third. The 3.2 favourite AWESOME TREASURE finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CAPTAIN WIN B 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 5 6.4 N
2 10 BALLISTIC WIN B Thompson · T P Yung 9 11.0 N
3 6 FUN N FUN TOGETHER C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 6.8 3/4
4 5 FAMILY JEWEL TT1 M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 28.0 1-1/2
5 8 SUPER LEGENDS TT H Bowman · C S Shum 8 8.8 3-1/2
6 9 VIEW OF THE WORLD A Badel · C H Yip 11 28.0 3-1/2
7 4 DRAGON FOUR SEAS K C Leung · K L Man 7 61.0 3-3/4
8 2 NEBRASKAN PC Z Purton · J Size 3 4.9 4
9 11 PACKING BRILLIANT CP/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui 6 38.0 4-1/4
10 12 SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 40.0 7
11 1 AWESOME TREASURE TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 10 3.2 10-3/4
12 7 SPICY KNUCKLES H1/TT1 M F Poon · W K Mo 4 19.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPTAIN WIN2. BALLISTIC WIN+0.05L3. FUN N FUN TOGETHER+0.75L4. FAMILY JEWEL+1.5L5. SUPER LEGENDS+3.5L6. VIEW OF THE WORLD+3.5L7. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+3.75L8. NEBRASKAN+4L9. PACKING BRILLIANT+4.25L10. SHINKANSEN+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick AWESOME TREASURE (19.7%) finished 11th — the winner CAPTAIN WIN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AWESOME TREASURE 19.7% 5.07 11
2 6 FUN N FUN TOGETHER 14.7% 6.80 3
3 3 CAPTAIN WIN 14.0% 7.17 1
4 2 NEBRASKAN 12.7% 7.85 8
5 8 SUPER LEGENDS 9.3% 10.71 5
6 12 SHINKANSEN 5.8% 17.12 10
7 9 VIEW OF THE WORLD 4.8% 20.84 6
8 10 BALLISTIC WIN 4.6% 21.72 2
9 11 PACKING BRILLIANT 4.0% 24.89 9
10 5 FAMILY JEWEL 4.0% 24.94 4
11 7 SPICY KNUCKLES 3.6% 28.15 12
12 4 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 2.7% 37.05 7
AWESOME TREASUREFUN N FUN TOGETHERCAPTAIN WIN — wonNEBRASKANSUPER LEGENDSSHINKANSENVIEW OF THE WORLDBALLISTIC WINPACKING BRILLIANTFAMILY JEWELSPICY KNUCKLESDRAGON FOUR SEAS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 64.5

PLACE

3 19

6 21.5

10 36

QUINELLA

3,10 416.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 92.5

3,10 120

6,10 116.5

FORECAST

3,10 793

TIERCE

3,10,6 4,626

TRIO

3,6,10 929

FIRST 4

3,5,6,10 3,659

QUARTET

3,10,6,5 69,574

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/1/3 563

9/1/10 259

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4/3,6,10 9,856

4TH DOUBLE

1/3 88.5

1/10 23