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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 1

Class 5 1200m 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 5 over 1200m. DAILY TROPHY, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with VULCANUS second and HIGH RISE POWER third. The 4.7 favourite SUPER JOY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DAILY TROPHY B/TT 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · C Fownes 2 5.0 N
2 8 VULCANUS Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 9 11.0 N
3 5 HIGH RISE POWER TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 8 14.0 1-1/4
4 9 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 5.8 1-1/4
5 7 SUPER JOY B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 4.7 1-3/4
6 4 SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 1 9.1 2-1/2
7 6 DIAMOND SOARS P2/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu 6 5.3 2-1/2
8 3 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT Z Purton · W Y So 4 7.0 5-3/4
9 2 CIRCUIT BLAZING A Hamelin · T P Yung 5 33.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DAILY TROPHY2. VULCANUS+0.05L3. HIGH RISE POWER+1.25L4. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+1.25L5. SUPER JOY+1.75L6. SPANGLE FORTUNE+2.5L7. DIAMOND SOARS+2.5L8. SMART LEADER+5.75L9. CIRCUIT BLAZING+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SMART LEADER (29.9%) finished 8th — the winner DAILY TROPHY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SMART LEADER 29.9% 3.34 8
2 7 SUPER JOY 13.5% 7.38 5
3 6 DIAMOND SOARS 13.4% 7.49 7
4 4 SPANGLE FORTUNE 11.7% 8.57 6
5 1 DAILY TROPHY 8.4% 11.86 1
6 8 VULCANUS 7.7% 12.96 2
7 5 HIGH RISE POWER 7.3% 13.67 3
8 9 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 4.7% 21.08 4
9 2 CIRCUIT BLAZING 3.3% 30.30 9
SMART LEADERSUPER JOYDIAMOND SOARSSPANGLE FORTUNEDAILY TROPHY — wonVULCANUSHIGH RISE POWERREGENCY HAPPY STARCIRCUIT BLAZING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 50.5

PLACE

1 19

5 41

8 30.5

QUINELLA

1,8 264.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 126.5

1,8 90

5,8 241.5

FORECAST

1,8 517

TIERCE

1,8,5 6,669

TRIO

1,5,8 1,421

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 2,030

QUARTET

1,8,5,9 39,965