Sha Tin · 2024-09-28
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 5 over 1200m. DAILY TROPHY, ridden by B Thompson and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with VULCANUS second and HIGH RISE POWER third. The 4.7 favourite SUPER JOY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DAILY TROPHY B/TT 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 2 | 5.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | VULCANUS Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 11.0 | N |
| 3 | 5 | HIGH RISE POWER TT B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 8 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR B M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 5.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | SUPER JOY B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 3 | 4.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 9.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | DIAMOND SOARS P2/TT E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 7.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | CIRCUIT BLAZING A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 5 | 33.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 29.9% | 3.34 | 8 |
| 2 | 7 | SUPER JOY | 13.5% | 7.38 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | DIAMOND SOARS | 13.4% | 7.49 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 11.7% | 8.57 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | DAILY TROPHY | 8.4% | 11.86 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | VULCANUS | 7.7% | 12.96 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | HIGH RISE POWER | 7.3% | 13.67 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 4.7% | 21.08 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | CIRCUIT BLAZING | 3.3% | 30.30 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 50.5
PLACE
1 19
5 41
8 30.5
QUINELLA
1,8 264.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 126.5
1,8 90
5,8 241.5
FORECAST
1,8 517
TIERCE
1,8,5 6,669
TRIO
1,5,8 1,421
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 2,030
QUARTET
1,8,5,9 39,965