Sha Tin · 2024-09-28
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 5 over 1600m. CASA LEGEND, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/4, with CHARMANDER second and GO HERO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.9 favourite CHARMANDER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | CASA LEGEND Closed strongly P/TT 1.35.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 5.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 6 | CHARMANDER Closed strongly V Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 1.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | GO HERO Led early B/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 8.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 7 | 6.2 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | MERCHANT PRINCE V/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 4 | 32.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | NICE BIRDIE TT P N Wong · C S Shum | P N Wong | C S Shum | 1 | 15.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | HAPPY HUNK CP-/B2/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 7.6 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR B/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 5 | 35.0 | 10 |
| — | 5 | HARRY'S HERO H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CHARMANDER | 32.7% | 3.05 | 2 |
| 2 | 8 | CASA LEGEND | 19.1% | 5.24 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | GO HERO | 13.2% | 7.55 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | NICE BIRDIE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 6 |
| 5 | 3 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 9.5% | 10.57 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | HAPPY HUNK | 8.6% | 11.68 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 4.8% | 20.68 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | GAMEPLAYER WARRIOR | 2.0% | 51.15 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 58.5
PLACE
6 13
7 22
8 15
QUINELLA
6,8 49.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 32
6,8 23
7,8 54
FORECAST
8,6 166
TIERCE
8,6,7 686
TRIO
6,7,8 102
FIRST 4
3,6,7,8 68
QUARTET
8,6,7,3 2,351
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/6 22.5
1/8 285.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,8/6,7,8 22,586