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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 8

Class 4 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m. HAROLD WIN, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with BLAZING WIND second and AWESOME TREASURE third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HAROLD WIN B/XB 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · K W Lui 6 2.4 SH
2 5 BLAZING WIND TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 19.0 SH
3 1 AWESOME TREASURE TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 21.0 1/2
4 10 WIN SPEED B K C Leung · M Newnham 8 34.0 2
5 6 KING OBERON L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 7.7 2-1/4
6 3 LUCKY TOUCH B/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 7 12.0 3
7 4 EVERYONE'S CLASSIC Z Purton · F C Lor 3 2.8 3
8 8 GLORIOUS EXPERT P N Wong · D J Hall 1 15.0 5
9 7 UNIVERSAL BLAZE P-/H1 A Badel · J Size 9 106.0 5
10 9 STRATHBARRY B Thompson · T P Yung 2 44.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAROLD WIN2. BLAZING WIND+0.1L3. AWESOME TREASURE+0.5L4. WIN SPEED+2L5. KING OBERON+2.25L6. LUCKY TOUCH+3L7. EVERYONE'S CLASSIC+3L8. GLORIOUS EXPERT+5L9. UNIVERSAL BLAZE+5L10. STRATHBARRY+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S CLASSIC (33.8%) finished 7th — the winner HAROLD WIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 EVERYONE'S CLASSIC 33.8% 2.96 7
2 2 HAROLD WIN 18.5% 5.42 1
3 6 KING OBERON 12.8% 7.81 5
4 3 LUCKY TOUCH 10.9% 9.20 6
5 8 GLORIOUS EXPERT 7.3% 13.62 8
6 5 BLAZING WIND 5.2% 19.38 2
7 9 STRATHBARRY 4.2% 23.69 10
8 10 WIN SPEED 3.5% 28.40 4
9 1 AWESOME TREASURE 2.9% 35.01 3
10 7 UNIVERSAL BLAZE 1.0% 101.74 9
EVERYONE'S CLASSICHAROLD WIN — wonKING OBERONLUCKY TOUCHGLORIOUS EXPERTBLAZING WINDSTRATHBARRYWIN SPEEDAWESOME TREASUREUNIVERSAL BLAZE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 24

PLACE

1 49

2 12

5 40

QUINELLA

2,5 203

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 95

1,5 304

2,5 68

FORECAST

2,5 307

TIERCE

2,5,1 3,003

TRIO

1,2,5 808

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 3,301

QUARTET

2,5,1,10 42,174

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/1,2,5 18,454

7TH DOUBLE

2/2 212

2/5 249.5