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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 9

Class 3 1600m Course C 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 3 over 1600m. PRAY FOR MIR, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with VOYAGE SAMURAI second and FORTUNATE SON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite VOYAGE SAMURAI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PRAY FOR MIR Closed strongly CP1 1.34.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 5 14.0 N
2 6 VOYAGE SAMURAI Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 11 3.5 N
3 7 FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Whyte 3 3.9 1/2
4 12 SUPER LOVE DRAGON Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So 6 19.0 1-3/4
5 4 FRANTANCK TT P N Wong · P C Ng 7 17.0 3
6 8 STAR MAC Closed strongly CP/TT1 L Ferraris · D A Hayes 10 18.0 3-1/2
7 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER A Hamelin · J Size 1 45.0 4
8 2 CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 12.0 4-1/4
9 5 M UNICORN Closed strongly H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 4 28.0 4-1/2
10 10 SECOND TO NONE C Y Ho · K W Lui 13 14.0 4-1/2
11 13 VOLCANIC SPARK B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 12 7.0 4-3/4
12 1 WINNING DRAGON TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 25.0 6
13 9 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR H B Avdulla · M Newnham 9 18.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRAY FOR MIR2. VOYAGE SAMURAI+0.05L3. FORTUNATE SON+0.5L4. SUPER LOVE DRAGON+1.75L5. FRANTANCK+3L6. STAR MAC+3.5L7. SWEET ENCOUNTER+4L8. CHING+4.25L9. M UNICORN+4.5L10. SECOND TO NONE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VOYAGE SAMURAI (23.7%) finished 2nd — the winner PRAY FOR MIR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VOYAGE SAMURAI 23.7% 4.23 2
2 7 FORTUNATE SON 14.9% 6.73 3
3 10 SECOND TO NONE 13.5% 7.42 10
4 13 VOLCANIC SPARK 8.1% 12.30 11
5 11 PRAY FOR MIR 6.1% 16.34 1
6 12 SUPER LOVE DRAGON 5.9% 16.89 4
7 5 M UNICORN 5.1% 19.59 9
8 4 FRANTANCK 4.6% 21.53 5
9 1 WINNING DRAGON 4.6% 21.87 12
10 2 CHING 4.4% 22.81 8
11 8 STAR MAC 4.1% 24.45 6
12 9 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR 3.1% 32.24 13
13 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER 1.9% 52.22 7
VOYAGE SAMURAIFORTUNATE SONSECOND TO NONEVOLCANIC SPARKPRAY FOR MIR — wonSUPER LOVE DRAGONM UNICORNFRANTANCKWINNING DRAGONCHINGSTAR MACFORTUNE SUPERSTARSWEET ENCOUNTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 145.5

PLACE

6 16.5

7 16.5

11 42.5

QUINELLA

6,11 268

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 33

6,11 100.5

7,11 107

FORECAST

11,6 693

TIERCE

11,6,7 3,310

TRIO

6,7,11 359

FIRST 4

6,7,11,12 1,123

QUARTET

11,6,7,12 36,948

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/6 17.5

2/11 517.5