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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 4

Class 4 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 4 over 1200m. JOLLY COMPANION, ridden by P N Wong and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with BOWSER second and COSMO NAVIGATOR third. The 4.1 favourite REGENT GLORY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 JOLLY COMPANION CP/TT 1.09.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · K L Man 4 11.0 1
2 1 BOWSER H-/PC1/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu 12 9.9 1
3 10 COSMO NAVIGATOR B Y L Chung · C W Chang 6 9.0 1-3/4
4 3 REGENT GLORY B Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 4.1 2
5 4 ACA POWER CP A Badel · D J Hall 11 11.0 2-1/4
6 2 SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 15.0 4
7 6 ROBOT KNIGHT CP-/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 2 6.7 4-1/4
8 5 DAY DAY VICTORY XB L Hewitson · T P Yung 5 22.0 5
9 9 HAPPY TANGO B E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 3 15.0 5-3/4
10 12 SONIC BOOM TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 5.7 6
11 7 VALHALLA XB/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 9 38.0 8-1/2
12 8 FLYING DRAGON XB-/B2 A Atzeni · C H Yip 8 17.0 24

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOLLY COMPANION2. BOWSER+1L3. COSMO NAVIGATOR+1.75L4. REGENT GLORY+2L5. ACA POWER+2.25L6. SHANGHAI STYLE+4L7. ROBOT KNIGHT+4.25L8. DAY DAY VICTORY+5L9. HAPPY TANGO+5.75L10. SONIC BOOM+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick REGENT GLORY (18.7%) finished 4th — the winner JOLLY COMPANION was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 REGENT GLORY 18.7% 5.35 4
2 9 HAPPY TANGO 17.1% 5.85 9
3 6 ROBOT KNIGHT 10.6% 9.39 7
4 10 COSMO NAVIGATOR 8.6% 11.58 3
5 11 JOLLY COMPANION 8.2% 12.21 1
6 2 SHANGHAI STYLE 7.3% 13.72 6
7 12 SONIC BOOM 7.0% 14.30 10
8 1 BOWSER 5.9% 16.88 2
9 4 ACA POWER 5.9% 16.97 5
10 7 VALHALLA 5.8% 17.28 11
11 8 FLYING DRAGON 3.2% 30.88 12
12 5 DAY DAY VICTORY 1.6% 62.85 8
REGENT GLORYHAPPY TANGOROBOT KNIGHTCOSMO NAVIGATORJOLLY COMPANION — wonSHANGHAI STYLESONIC BOOMBOWSERACA POWERVALHALLAFLYING DRAGONDAY DAY VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 110.5

PLACE

1 36

10 32

11 36

QUINELLA

1,11 705.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 169.5

1,11 226.5

10,11 172.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,565

TIERCE

11,1,10 13,925

TRIO

1,10,11 2,250

FIRST 4

1,3,10,11 2,471

QUARTET

11,1,10,3 92,983

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,8/1,10,11 314,542

3RD DOUBLE

5/1 35.5

5/11 501.5