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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 3 over 1400m. PRESTIGE ALWAYS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with LESLIE second and NOT USUAL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite KING MILES finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS Closed strongly B 1.22.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 12 3.7 N
2 5 LESLIE Closed strongly B2 K C Leung · C W Chang 5 20.0 N
3 8 NOT USUAL STAR Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 1 17.0 N
4 4 SILO CP1 B Avdulla · M Newnham 7 17.0 1/2
5 9 PRINCE OF PORTY B/TT H Bentley · D J Hall 2 15.0 1/2
6 13 THRIVING BROTHERS Led early XB1 A Badel · D J Whyte 8 8.5 3/4
7 2 KING MILES Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 3.2 2
8 12 ENDEARED XB A Hamelin · J Size 3 10.0 2-3/4
9 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT2 B Thompson · D A Hayes 10 31.0 3-3/4
10 6 SUPER GOLDI TT A Atzeni · F C Lor 4 8.2 3-3/4
11 10 MIGHTY COMMANDER H/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 29.0 4
12 11 PHANTOM CYCLONE V/TT Y L Chung · T P Yung 9 110.0 4-1/4
1 GREEN N WHITE H Bowman · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRESTIGE ALWAYS2. LESLIE+0.05L3. NOT USUAL STAR+0.05L4. SILO+0.5L5. PRINCE OF PORTY+0.5L6. THRIVING BROTHERS+0.75L7. KING MILES+2L8. ENDEARED+2.75L9. ORIENTAL SMOKE+3.75L10. SUPER GOLDI+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KING MILES (30.7%) finished 7th — the winner PRESTIGE ALWAYS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 KING MILES 30.7% 3.26 7
2 3 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 16.7% 5.99 1
3 8 NOT USUAL STAR 10.4% 9.66 3
4 6 SUPER GOLDI 9.1% 10.94 10
5 9 PRINCE OF PORTY 9.1% 10.97 5
6 13 THRIVING BROTHERS 5.7% 17.55 6
7 4 SILO 4.5% 22.33 4
8 12 ENDEARED 4.2% 23.77 8
9 10 MIGHTY COMMANDER 3.4% 29.46 11
10 5 LESLIE 2.9% 34.70 2
11 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE 2.5% 39.58 9
12 11 PHANTOM CYCLONE 0.8% 123.33 12
KING MILESPRESTIGE ALWAYS — wonNOT USUAL STARSUPER GOLDIPRINCE OF PORTYTHRIVING BROTHERSSILOENDEAREDMIGHTY COMMANDERLESLIEORIENTAL SMOKEPHANTOM CYCLONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 37.5

PLACE

3 17

5 44.5

8 41.5

QUINELLA

3,5 485.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 155.5

3,8 121.5

5,8 330.5

FORECAST

3,5 757

TIERCE

3,5,8 8,475

TRIO

3,5,8 2,152

FIRST 4

3,4,5,8 6,462

QUARTET

3,5,8,4 110,804

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

2/11/3 3,288

2/11/5 3,318

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,11/3,5,8 86,444

9TH DOUBLE

11/3 822.5

11/5 610.5

SIX UP

2/9/2/2/11/3 2,225,029

2,12/8,9/1,2/2,5/6,11/3,5 1,291

1 [Z Purton]

5 [C W Chang]