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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 7

Class 3 1200m Course C 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 3 over 1200m. RUBYLOT, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with BOTTOMUPTOGETHER second and GREAT STATE third. The 1.5 favourite BOTTOMUPTOGETHER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RUBYLOT 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · D A Hayes 2 5.8 1/2
2 1 BOTTOMUPTOGETHER SR Z Purton · F C Lor 8 1.5 1/2
3 4 GREAT STATE TT M L Yeung · W Y So 1 57.0 2-3/4
4 9 SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 8.2 2-3/4
5 6 GOKO WIN B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 4 7.2 2-3/4
6 7 GALVANIC TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 7 55.0 3-1/2
7 5 POLARIS B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 3 40.0 4
8 8 ELEGANT LIFE CP A Hamelin · T P Yung 5 26.0 5-1/2
9 3 EQUATORIAL H1/SR1/TT1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 81.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RUBYLOT2. BOTTOMUPTOGETHER+0.5L3. GREAT STATE+2.75L4. SUPER FORTUNE+2.75L5. GOKO WIN+2.75L6. GALVANIC+3.5L7. POLARIS+4L8. ELEGANT LIFE+5.5L9. EQUATORIAL+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BOTTOMUPTOGETHER (57.8%) finished 2nd — the winner RUBYLOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BOTTOMUPTOGETHER 57.8% 1.73 2
2 2 RUBYLOT 14.0% 7.14 1
3 6 GOKO WIN 8.3% 12.09 5
4 9 SUPER FORTUNE 6.2% 16.12 4
5 4 GREAT STATE 3.5% 28.70 3
6 5 POLARIS 3.3% 30.24 7
7 3 EQUATORIAL 3.2% 30.97 9
8 7 GALVANIC 2.3% 43.65 6
9 8 ELEGANT LIFE 1.4% 70.25 8
BOTTOMUPTOGETHERRUBYLOT — wonGOKO WINSUPER FORTUNEGREAT STATEPOLARISEQUATORIALGALVANICELEGANT LIFE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 58

PLACE

1 11.5

2 14.5

4 69.5

QUINELLA

1,2 33

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 17

1,4 95

2,4 156.5

FORECAST

2,1 145

TIERCE

2,1,4 1,497

TRIO

1,2,4 260

FIRST 4

1,2,4,9 277

QUARTET

2,1,4,9 8,035

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

9/1 82

9/2 2,372.5