Sha Tin · 2024-09-28
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR/B1 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 2.6 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | AFFIRM Led early CP1/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 9 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | MR ENERGIA Closed strongly B H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 10 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | FOXHUNTER KING CP/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 3 | 82.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | TAKE ACTION Closed strongly A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | CALIFORNIA BANNER Closed strongly CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 11 | 44.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | FOOLISH HEART V/TT2 B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 1 | 8.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | MAJESTIC COLOUR B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 7 | 33.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CHAMPION METHOD B-/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 4 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | LEEDOX BR-/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 6 | 29.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | ACE POWER B/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte | B Avdulla | D J Whyte | 2 | 54.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 12 | 51.0 | 8-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 4 over 1400m. FIGHTING MACHINE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with AFFIRM second and MR ENERGIA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FIGHTING MACHINE | 33.7% | 2.97 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | AFFIRM | 13.8% | 7.25 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | MR ENERGIA | 10.4% | 9.57 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | FOOLISH HEART | 8.1% | 12.39 | 7 |
| 5 | 8 | CHAMPION METHOD | 7.3% | 13.68 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | TAKE ACTION | 5.9% | 17.00 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS | 5.3% | 18.81 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | CALIFORNIA BANNER | 4.5% | 22.14 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | LEEDOX | 4.0% | 25.18 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | MAJESTIC COLOUR | 3.4% | 29.13 | 8 |
| 11 | 5 | ACE POWER | 2.4% | 41.78 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | FOXHUNTER KING | 1.2% | 84.77 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 26
PLACE
2 13
7 20.5
12 18
QUINELLA
2,12 63
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 42.5
2,12 28.5
7,12 67
FORECAST
2,12 117
TIERCE
2,12,7 553
TRIO
2,7,12 137
FIRST 4
2,7,10,12 1,427
QUARTET
2,12,7,10 17,341
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
5/11/2 1,533
5/11/12 465
4TH DOUBLE
11/2 606
11/12 177