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Sha Tin · 2024-09-28

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-28 was Class 4 over 1400m. DEAL COMPLETED, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with FORERUNNER second and JUMBO LEGEND third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite HAPPY DAILY finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 DEAL COMPLETED Wire to wire B/TT 1.22.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K H Ting 8 36.0 N
2 8 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 12 8.2 N
3 1 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 6 23.0 N
4 10 HARMONY N HOME Closed strongly M F Poon · C S Shum 11 19.0 N
5 5 AMAZING RUN Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 10 5.8 1/2
6 7 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 7.9 3/4
7 6 HAPPY DAILY TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 5 4.1 1-1/2
8 12 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 32.0 2-1/4
9 11 GANGNAM STAR XB A Badel · P C Ng 4 5.4 2-1/2
10 3 MY FLYING ANGEL CP E C W Wong · F C Lor 1 13.0 3
11 2 NORTHERN BEAST Z Purton · D J Hall 2 7.8 3-1/2
12 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 82.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DEAL COMPLETED2. FORERUNNER+0.05L3. JUMBO LEGEND+0.05L4. HARMONY N HOME+0.05L5. AMAZING RUN+0.5L6. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+0.75L7. HAPPY DAILY+1.5L8. KASA PAPA+2.25L9. GANGNAM STAR+2.5L10. MY FLYING ANGEL+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NORTHERN BEAST (25.1%) finished 11th — the winner DEAL COMPLETED was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 NORTHERN BEAST 25.1% 3.99 11
2 5 AMAZING RUN 14.7% 6.80 5
3 8 FORERUNNER 11.3% 8.86 2
4 7 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 10.9% 9.16 6
5 11 GANGNAM STAR 10.1% 9.92 9
6 6 HAPPY DAILY 6.7% 14.90 7
7 1 JUMBO LEGEND 5.7% 17.39 3
8 10 HARMONY N HOME 4.8% 20.67 4
9 12 KASA PAPA 4.6% 21.52 8
10 3 MY FLYING ANGEL 4.5% 22.35 10
11 9 DEAL COMPLETED 1.0% 105.15 1
12 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON 0.6% 170.41 12
NORTHERN BEASTAMAZING RUNFORERUNNERCIRCUIT MIGHTYGANGNAM STARHAPPY DAILYJUMBO LEGENDHARMONY N HOMEKASA PAPAMY FLYING ANGELDEAL COMPLETED — wonORIENTAL TYCOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 364.5

PLACE

1 63.5

8 23.5

9 96

QUINELLA

8,9 1,798

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 256.5

1,9 871

8,9 494.5

FORECAST

9,8 2,662

TIERCE

9,8,1 55,461

TRIO

1,8,9 6,059

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 19,420

QUARTET

9,8,1,10 457,710

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,12/1,8,9 202,591

5TH DOUBLE

2/8 33

2/9 954.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,10,11/2,7,12/1,8,9 31,193,331

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,10,11/2,7,12/Any Combination 6,830