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Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 04:35

Race 1

Class 4 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. SPICY SPANGLE, ridden by P N Wong and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with I AM THE BOSS second and FLYING DOUBLE third. The 1.7 favourite BLAZING WIND finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SPICY SPANGLE TT 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · P C Ng 2 7.4 3/4
2 2 I AM THE BOSS CP/XB H T Mo · K W Lui 7 73.0 3/4
3 4 FLYING DOUBLE SR Z Purton · D J Hall 8 5.2 1-1/4
4 9 NEWBORN MIRACLE TT1 C L Chau · P F Yiu 3 29.0 4-3/4
5 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY M F Poon · K L Man 11 23.0 5-1/4
6 5 KING SHOW A Badel · Y S Tsui 10 202.0 6
7 13 WISDOM STAR XB-/B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 1 45.0 6
8 11 ORIENTAL TYCOON PC1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 194.0 6-3/4
9 1 BLAZING WIND TT J McDonald · C S Shum 6 1.7 7
10 7 LUCKY IMPACT A Atzeni · F C Lor 9 19.0 7-3/4
11 6 LOADED WITH FLUKE H Bentley · D J Whyte 4 133.0 8
12 10 SKY VINO H1/TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes 5 20.0 8
13 14 GALLANT CROWN CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 14 21.0 8-1/4
14 8 MULTIBINGO TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 66.0 8-1/4
0 TOP SCORER K Teetan · J Size
0 EXCEED THE WISH L Ferraris · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPICY SPANGLE2. I AM THE BOSS+0.75L3. FLYING DOUBLE+1.25L4. NEWBORN MIRACLE+4.75L5. CIRCUIT VICTORY+5.25L6. KING SHOW+6L7. WISDOM STAR+6L8. ORIENTAL TYCOON+6.75L9. BLAZING WIND+7L10. LUCKY IMPACT+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FLYING DOUBLE (21.7%) finished 3rd — the winner SPICY SPANGLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FLYING DOUBLE 21.7% 4.61 3
2 1 BLAZING WIND 19.6% 5.11 9
3 10 SKY VINO 11.5% 8.66 12
4 9 NEWBORN MIRACLE 8.3% 12.06 4
5 3 SPICY SPANGLE 7.5% 13.29 1
6 7 LUCKY IMPACT 7.2% 13.80 10
7 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY 4.8% 20.77 5
8 6 LOADED WITH FLUKE 4.3% 23.24 11
9 14 GALLANT CROWN 4.3% 23.36 13
10 8 MULTIBINGO 3.5% 28.95 14
11 5 KING SHOW 3.1% 32.62 6
12 2 I AM THE BOSS 1.9% 53.31 2
13 13 WISDOM STAR 1.5% 67.58 7
14 11 ORIENTAL TYCOON 0.8% 118.72 8
FLYING DOUBLEBLAZING WINDSKY VINONEWBORN MIRACLESPICY SPANGLE — wonLUCKY IMPACTCIRCUIT VICTORYLOADED WITH FLUKEGALLANT CROWNMULTIBINGOKING SHOWI AM THE BOSSWISDOM STARORIENTAL TYCOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 74

PLACE

2 130.5

3 19

4 15

QUINELLA

2,3 2,364.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 491.5

2,4 361

3,4 44

FORECAST

3,2 4,244

TIERCE

3,2,4 28,898

TRIO

2,3,4 3,660

FIRST 4

2,3,4,9 11,761

QUARTET

3,2,4,9 341,992