Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 04:35
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Class 4 over 1200m. SPICY SPANGLE, ridden by P N Wong and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with I AM THE BOSS second and FLYING DOUBLE third. The 1.7 favourite BLAZING WIND finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPICY SPANGLE TT 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) P N Wong · P C Ng | P N Wong | P C Ng | 2 | 7.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | I AM THE BOSS CP/XB H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 7 | 73.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | FLYING DOUBLE SR Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 5.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | NEWBORN MIRACLE TT1 C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 3 | 29.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | CIRCUIT VICTORY M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | KING SHOW A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 10 | 202.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 13 | WISDOM STAR XB-/B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 45.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | ORIENTAL TYCOON PC1 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 12 | 194.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | BLAZING WIND TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 6 | 1.7 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | LUCKY IMPACT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 9 | 19.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | LOADED WITH FLUKE H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 4 | 133.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | SKY VINO H1/TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 20.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 14 | GALLANT CROWN CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 14 | 21.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 8 | MULTIBINGO TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 13 | 66.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 0 | TOP SCORER K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | EXCEED THE WISH L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FLYING DOUBLE | 21.7% | 4.61 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | BLAZING WIND | 19.6% | 5.11 | 9 |
| 3 | 10 | SKY VINO | 11.5% | 8.66 | 12 |
| 4 | 9 | NEWBORN MIRACLE | 8.3% | 12.06 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | SPICY SPANGLE | 7.5% | 13.29 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | LUCKY IMPACT | 7.2% | 13.80 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | CIRCUIT VICTORY | 4.8% | 20.77 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | LOADED WITH FLUKE | 4.3% | 23.24 | 11 |
| 9 | 14 | GALLANT CROWN | 4.3% | 23.36 | 13 |
| 10 | 8 | MULTIBINGO | 3.5% | 28.95 | 14 |
| 11 | 5 | KING SHOW | 3.1% | 32.62 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | I AM THE BOSS | 1.9% | 53.31 | 2 |
| 13 | 13 | WISDOM STAR | 1.5% | 67.58 | 7 |
| 14 | 11 | ORIENTAL TYCOON | 0.8% | 118.72 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 74
PLACE
2 130.5
3 19
4 15
QUINELLA
2,3 2,364.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 491.5
2,4 361
3,4 44
FORECAST
3,2 4,244
TIERCE
3,2,4 28,898
TRIO
2,3,4 3,660
FIRST 4
2,3,4,9 11,761
QUARTET
3,2,4,9 341,992