Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 09:55

Race 11

Class 3 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Class 3 over 1200m. YOUNG SUPERSTAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with VICTORY SKY second and LIFELINE EXPRESS third. The 1.8 favourite PACKING POWER finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.08.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT 1.08.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 17.0 1/2
2 13 VICTORY SKY XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 22.0 1/2
3 14 LIFELINE EXPRESS E A Badel · J Size 14 16.0 1/2
4 9 PATCH OF COSMO B L Ferraris · K L Man 10 12.0 1-1/2
5 8 THUNDER PRINCE TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 111.0 2-1/4
6 7 CASA ROCHESTER H Bentley · M Newnham 9 76.0 3-3/4
7 10 POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes 7 203.0 4-1/4
8 4 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT P N Wong · T P Yung 5 52.0 6
9 1 PACKING POWER TT Z Purton · C S Shum 8 1.8 6-1/4
10 11 THESIS TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 48.0 6-1/4
11 2 PRESS LINK B1 M F Poon · P C Ng 12 61.0 6-1/2
12 12 CHAMPION INSTINCT B A Atzeni · D J Hall 6 26.0 7-1/4
13 5 DIVANO TT J McDonald · K W Lui 2 3.3 9
14 3 FAST RESPONDER H/SR/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 190.0 15-1/2
0 SUPER INFINITY H Bentley · M Newnham

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUNG SUPERSTAR2. VICTORY SKY+0.5L3. LIFELINE EXPRESS+0.5L4. PATCH OF COSMO+1.5L5. THUNDER PRINCE+2.25L6. CASA ROCHESTER+3.75L7. POSITIVE SMILE+4.25L8. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS+6L9. PACKING POWER+6.25L10. THESIS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING POWER (33.5%) finished 9th — the winner YOUNG SUPERSTAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PACKING POWER 33.5% 2.99 9
2 5 DIVANO 18.4% 5.42 13
3 9 PATCH OF COSMO 11.5% 8.68 4
4 14 LIFELINE EXPRESS 9.8% 10.20 3
5 11 THESIS 5.9% 17.07 10
6 6 YOUNG SUPERSTAR 4.6% 21.87 1
7 12 CHAMPION INSTINCT 3.6% 27.75 12
8 7 CASA ROCHESTER 3.6% 28.01 6
9 13 VICTORY SKY 2.4% 41.23 2
10 2 PRESS LINK 2.2% 45.24 11
11 4 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 1.4% 69.01 8
12 8 THUNDER PRINCE 1.4% 70.09 5
13 3 FAST RESPONDER 1.1% 89.27 14
14 10 POSITIVE SMILE 0.5% 196.01 7
PACKING POWERDIVANOPATCH OF COSMOLIFELINE EXPRESSTHESISYOUNG SUPERSTAR — wonCHAMPION INSTINCTCASA ROCHESTERVICTORY SKYPRESS LINKEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSTHUNDER PRINCEFAST RESPONDERPOSITIVE SMILE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 179.5

PLACE

6 34

13 43

14 33.5

QUINELLA

6,13 1,353

QUINELLA PLACE

6,13 309.5

6,14 235.5

13,14 225.5

FORECAST

6,13 3,164

TIERCE

6,13,14 24,620

TRIO

6,13,14 4,050

FIRST 4

6,9,13,14 5,696

QUARTET

6,13,14,9 143,013

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

9/6 15,792.5

9/13 2,525.5

2ND TREBLE

1/9/6 13,835

1/9/13 2,456

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/6,13,14 2,989,474

SIX UP

6/4/1/1/9/6 1,016,432

6,10/4,7/1,9/1,7/3,9/6,13 14,198

2 [Z Purton]

3 [P C Ng]