Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 09:55
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Class 3 over 1200m. YOUNG SUPERSTAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with VICTORY SKY second and LIFELINE EXPRESS third. The 1.8 favourite PACKING POWER finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | YOUNG SUPERSTAR TT 1.08.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 4 | 17.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | VICTORY SKY XB K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 1 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | LIFELINE EXPRESS E A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 14 | 16.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | PATCH OF COSMO B L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 10 | 12.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | THUNDER PRINCE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 11 | 111.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | CASA ROCHESTER H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 9 | 76.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | POSITIVE SMILE M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 203.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 4 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT P N Wong · T P Yung | P N Wong | T P Yung | 5 | 52.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | PACKING POWER TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 1.8 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | THESIS TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 48.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | PRESS LINK B1 M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 12 | 61.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | CHAMPION INSTINCT B A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 6 | 26.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | DIVANO TT J McDonald · K W Lui | J McDonald | K W Lui | 2 | 3.3 | 9 |
| 14 | 3 | FAST RESPONDER H/SR/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 13 | 190.0 | 15-1/2 |
| — | 0 | SUPER INFINITY H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING POWER | 33.5% | 2.99 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | DIVANO | 18.4% | 5.42 | 13 |
| 3 | 9 | PATCH OF COSMO | 11.5% | 8.68 | 4 |
| 4 | 14 | LIFELINE EXPRESS | 9.8% | 10.20 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | THESIS | 5.9% | 17.07 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | YOUNG SUPERSTAR | 4.6% | 21.87 | 1 |
| 7 | 12 | CHAMPION INSTINCT | 3.6% | 27.75 | 12 |
| 8 | 7 | CASA ROCHESTER | 3.6% | 28.01 | 6 |
| 9 | 13 | VICTORY SKY | 2.4% | 41.23 | 2 |
| 10 | 2 | PRESS LINK | 2.2% | 45.24 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS | 1.4% | 69.01 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | THUNDER PRINCE | 1.4% | 70.09 | 5 |
| 13 | 3 | FAST RESPONDER | 1.1% | 89.27 | 14 |
| 14 | 10 | POSITIVE SMILE | 0.5% | 196.01 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 179.5
PLACE
6 34
13 43
14 33.5
QUINELLA
6,13 1,353
QUINELLA PLACE
6,13 309.5
6,14 235.5
13,14 225.5
FORECAST
6,13 3,164
TIERCE
6,13,14 24,620
TRIO
6,13,14 4,050
FIRST 4
6,9,13,14 5,696
QUARTET
6,13,14,9 143,013
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
9/6 15,792.5
9/13 2,525.5
2ND TREBLE
1/9/6 13,835
1/9/13 2,456
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,9/6,13,14 2,989,474
SIX UP
6/4/1/1/9/6 1,016,432
6,10/4,7/1,9/1,7/3,9/6,13 14,198
2 [Z Purton] —
3 [P C Ng] —