Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 08:10

Race 8

Group 2 1600m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Group 2 over 1600m. VOYAGE BUBBLE, ridden by J McDonald and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with CHANCHENG GLORY second and GALAXY PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite GALAXY PATCH finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.32.82

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	VOYAGE BUBBLE Closed strongly CP 1.32.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · P F Yiu	J McDonald	P F Yiu	9	128 lb	3.5	3/4
2	9	CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly V-/XB/B2 K Teetan · K W Lui	K Teetan	K W Lui	2	123 lb	11.0	3/4
3	5	GALAXY PATCH Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng	C Y Ho	P C Ng	5	123 lb	1.7	2
4	6	HAPPY TOGETHER Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	7	123 lb	49.0	3
5	4	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	4	123 lb	27.0	3-1/4
6	3	STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · P F Yiu	B Avdulla	P F Yiu	8	123 lb	45.0	4
7	8	TAJ DRAGON B- A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	3	123 lb	88.0	4-3/4
8	2	BEAUTY ETERNAL Led early Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	6	128 lb	7.5	5-1/2
9	7	RED LION H Bowman · J Size	H Bowman	J Size	1	123 lb	35.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick GALAXY PATCH (51.4%) finished 3rd — the winner VOYAGE BUBBLE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	GALAXY PATCH	51.4%	1.95	3	1.7
2	2	BEAUTY ETERNAL	13.1%	7.64	8	7.5
3	1	VOYAGE BUBBLE	11.0%	9.09	1	3.5
4	9	CHANCHENG GLORY	7.5%	13.41	2	11.0
5	7	RED LION	5.2%	19.10	9	35.0
6	6	HAPPY TOGETHER	3.3%	29.87	4	49.0
7	4	BEAUTY JOY	3.0%	32.94	5	27.0
8	8	TAJ DRAGON	3.0%	33.32	7	88.0
9	3	STRAIGHT ARRON	2.4%	41.23	6	45.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 35.5

PLACE

1 12.5

5 10.5

9 23

QUINELLA

1,9 247

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 16.5

1,9 54

5,9 32.5

FORECAST

1,9 434

TIERCE

1,9,5 907

TRIO

1,5,9 65

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 393

QUARTET

1,9,5,6 15,231

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

4/1 54.5

4/9 39

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