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Sha Tin · 2024-11-17 · 07:35

Race 7

Group 2 1200m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-17 was Group 2 over 1200m. KA YING RISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3-1/4, with HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE second and HELIOS EXPRESS third. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.07.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KA YING RISING 1.07.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 1.1 3-1/4
2 7 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE J McDonald · J Size 5 36.0 3-1/4
3 9 HELIOS EXPRESS H Bowman · J Size 6 14.0 3-1/4
4 10 BEAUTY WAVES E/TT A Badel · P C Ng 3 16.0 5
5 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 128.0 5
6 5 LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor 8 103.0 5-3/4
7 2 VICTOR THE WINNER CP1/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 1 47.0 6-1/2
8 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 10.0 6-3/4
9 6 FLYING ACE B M F Poon · D J Hall 9 169.0 7-1/2
10 12 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B M L Yeung · D J Whyte 7 256.0 9
11 11 COPARTNER PRANCE XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 113.0 9
12 8 MUGEN K Teetan · P C Ng 2 89.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING RISING2. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+3.25L3. HELIOS EXPRESS+3.25L4. BEAUTY WAVES+5L5. INVINCIBLE SAGE+5L6. LUCKY WITH YOU+5.75L7. VICTOR THE WINNER+6.5L8. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE+6.75L9. FLYING ACE+7.5L10. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KA YING RISING (61.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 KA YING RISING 61.2% 1.63 1
2 9 HELIOS EXPRESS 8.3% 12.07 3
3 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 7.4% 13.45 8
4 8 MUGEN 6.1% 16.46 12
5 7 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 5.4% 18.49 2
6 10 BEAUTY WAVES 3.3% 30.23 4
7 11 COPARTNER PRANCE 2.0% 50.85 11
8 2 VICTOR THE WINNER 1.5% 66.17 7
9 6 FLYING ACE 1.5% 68.86 9
10 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE 1.4% 70.83 5
11 5 LUCKY WITH YOU 1.2% 84.94 6
12 12 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 0.7% 136.42 10
KA YING RISING — wonHELIOS EXPRESSCALIFORNIA SPANGLEMUGENHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEBEAUTY WAVESCOPARTNER PRANCEVICTOR THE WINNERFLYING ACEINVINCIBLE SAGELUCKY WITH YOUMAJESTIC KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 11.5

PLACE

4 10.1

7 40.5

9 17.5

QUINELLA

4,7 95

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 41

4,9 19.5

7,9 144.5

FORECAST

4,7 150

TIERCE

4,7,9 509

TRIO

4,7,9 166

FIRST 4

4,7,9,10 186

QUARTET

4,7,9,10 1,724

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,13/4,7,9 5,301

6TH DOUBLE

6/4 82.5

6/7 304.5

TRIPLE TRIO

7,9,13/6,10,13/4,7,9 656,480

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

7,9,13/6,10,13/Any Combination 11,821