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Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 09:25

Race 10

Class 3 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Class 3 over 1200m. DANCING CODE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with ROMANTIC SON second and KING MILES third. The 2.5 favourite LIFELINE EXPRESS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DANCING CODE B/TT 1.09.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 6.7 2-1/4
2 5 ROMANTIC SON Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 6.9 2-1/4
3 2 KING MILES C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 7.5 2-1/4
4 10 LIFELINE EXPRESS E A Atzeni · J Size 11 2.5 3
5 7 KNOW AT HEART M Chadwick · W Y So 5 19.0 5
6 3 MATTERS MOST TT H Bentley · C S Shum 4 63.0 5-1/4
7 4 PRAWNS ELEVEN XB/TT M F Poon · M Newnham 7 14.0 5-1/2
8 6 ENDUED CP/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 6 7.3 6-1/2
9 9 UP WITH CHARM A Pouchin · D J Whyte 3 72.0 8
10 12 LUCKY COMBINATION B M L Yeung · F C Lor 9 91.0 10-3/4
11 11 BEAUTY GLORY CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 13.0 11-1/4
12 8 TELL ME MORE SR1/TT1 K Teetan · P C Ng 2 42.0 34-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DANCING CODE2. ROMANTIC SON+2.25L3. KING MILES+2.25L4. LIFELINE EXPRESS+3L5. KNOW AT HEART+5L6. MATTERS MOST+5.25L7. PRAWNS ELEVEN+5.5L8. ENDUED+6.5L9. UP WITH CHARM+8L10. LUCKY COMBINATION+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ROMANTIC SON (23.6%) finished 2nd — the winner DANCING CODE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ROMANTIC SON 23.6% 4.23 2
2 10 LIFELINE EXPRESS 21.7% 4.60 4
3 2 KING MILES 11.8% 8.46 3
4 1 DANCING CODE 9.3% 10.77 1
5 11 BEAUTY GLORY 6.5% 15.41 11
6 4 PRAWNS ELEVEN 6.4% 15.67 7
7 6 ENDUED 6.0% 16.60 8
8 8 TELL ME MORE 4.9% 20.48 12
9 7 KNOW AT HEART 3.5% 28.43 5
10 3 MATTERS MOST 3.2% 31.15 6
11 9 UP WITH CHARM 2.1% 46.77 9
12 12 LUCKY COMBINATION 0.9% 112.24 10
ROMANTIC SONLIFELINE EXPRESSKING MILESDANCING CODE — wonBEAUTY GLORYPRAWNS ELEVENENDUEDTELL ME MOREKNOW AT HEARTMATTERS MOSTUP WITH CHARMLUCKY COMBINATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 67

PLACE

1 20.5

2 22.5

5 26

QUINELLA

1,5 330

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 90

1,5 97

2,5 78.5

FORECAST

1,5 660

TIERCE

1,5,2 2,887

TRIO

1,2,5 557

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 242

QUARTET

1,5,2,10 8,096

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

11/1 316

11/5 30