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Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 07:10

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m. SOLID WIN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with PHOENIX LIGHT second and NOBLE FANS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite YUEN LONG ELITE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SOLID WIN Closed strongly TT 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 10 3.0 1-1/4
2 2 PHOENIX LIGHT Closed strongly H A Pouchin · C H Yip 13 45.0 1-1/4
3 9 NOBLE FANS Closed strongly H1 B Avdulla · J Size 3 12.0 1-1/2
4 3 YUEN LONG ELITE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K L Man 4 2.9 2
5 6 I AM THE BOSS Led early CP/XB A Hamelin · K W Lui 6 7.5 2
6 13 PERFECTO MOMENTS Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 65.0 2-1/4
7 12 GALE SAGA B E C W Wong · P C Ng 9 9.7 3-1/2
8 10 ALL ARE MINE Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 91.0 3-1/2
9 4 PATCH OF TIME H M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 16.0 6
10 1 GOOD LUCK BABE XB/TT L Hewitson · D Eustace 7 84.0 6-1/4
11 8 MR JUSTICE CP1/TT1 A Atzeni · C S Shum 8 162.0 7-1/4
12 7 SANTORINI B1 K Teetan · F C Lor 2 24.0 7-1/4
13 14 MR GOOD VIBES B M F Poon · D J Hall 14 115.0 10-3/4
14 11 ORIENTAL SURPRISE B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 25.0 20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SOLID WIN2. PHOENIX LIGHT+1.25L3. NOBLE FANS+1.5L4. YUEN LONG ELITE+2L5. I AM THE BOSS+2L6. PERFECTO MOMENTS+2.25L7. GALE SAGA+3.5L8. ALL ARE MINE+3.5L9. PATCH OF TIME+6L10. GOOD LUCK BABE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YUEN LONG ELITE (29.3%) finished 4th — the winner SOLID WIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 YUEN LONG ELITE 29.3% 3.41 4
2 5 SOLID WIN 19.8% 5.05 1
3 6 I AM THE BOSS 8.7% 11.53 5
4 4 PATCH OF TIME 8.0% 12.54 9
5 9 NOBLE FANS 6.0% 16.78 3
6 7 SANTORINI 5.8% 17.38 12
7 12 GALE SAGA 4.7% 21.08 7
8 8 MR JUSTICE 4.0% 24.70 11
9 10 ALL ARE MINE 3.6% 27.82 8
10 14 MR GOOD VIBES 3.2% 30.85 13
11 2 PHOENIX LIGHT 2.1% 46.82 2
12 13 PERFECTO MOMENTS 2.1% 46.99 6
13 11 ORIENTAL SURPRISE 1.4% 71.72 14
14 1 GOOD LUCK BABE 1.2% 80.12 10
YUEN LONG ELITESOLID WIN — wonI AM THE BOSSPATCH OF TIMENOBLE FANSSANTORINIGALE SAGAMR JUSTICEALL ARE MINEMR GOOD VIBESPHOENIX LIGHTPERFECTO MOMENTSORIENTAL SURPRISEGOOD LUCK BABE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 30.5

PLACE

2 92.5

5 13.5

9 39.5

QUINELLA

2,5 685.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 192.5

2,9 695.5

5,9 66.5

FORECAST

5,2 941

TIERCE

5,2,9 13,205

TRIO

2,5,9 2,418

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 1,233

QUARTET

5,2,9,3 50,970

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/2 732

3/5 734