Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 08:50

Race 9

Class 3 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Class 3 over 1200m. STORMING DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by N, with CHATEAUNEUF second and RUN RUN SMART third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 STORMING DRAGON V/TT 1.09.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 1 2.1 N
2 2 CHATEAUNEUF B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 5.4 N
3 10 RUN RUN SMART TT H Bentley · F C Lor 2 22.0 1/2
4 5 MAJESTIC EXPRESS E B Avdulla · J Size 10 4.6 3/4
5 8 HALO OF SUCCESS H-/XB/TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 11 43.0 1
6 4 LIVEANDLETLIVE TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 13.0 2-1/2
7 1 WONDERSTAR B L Ferraris · P C Ng 9 22.0 2-1/2
8 12 HARMONY FIRE CP-/XB2/TT- P N Wong · D J Whyte 4 77.0 3
9 9 REZEKI M F Poon · D J Hall 6 82.0 4-1/2
10 7 SWEET BRIAR V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 10.0 5
11 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT K De Melo · T P Yung 7 30.0 7
12 6 SUNNYVALE M Chadwick · W Y So 12 67.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STORMING DRAGON2. CHATEAUNEUF+0.05L3. RUN RUN SMART+0.5L4. MAJESTIC EXPRESS+0.75L5. HALO OF SUCCESS+1L6. LIVEANDLETLIVE+2.5L7. WONDERSTAR+2.5L8. HARMONY FIRE+3L9. REZEKI+4.5L10. SWEET BRIAR+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick STORMING DRAGON (37.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 STORMING DRAGON 37.2% 2.69 1
2 5 MAJESTIC EXPRESS 22.9% 4.37 4
3 2 CHATEAUNEUF 14.0% 7.15 2
4 4 LIVEANDLETLIVE 6.6% 15.20 6
5 7 SWEET BRIAR 5.1% 19.67 10
6 1 WONDERSTAR 3.4% 29.56 7
7 9 REZEKI 2.4% 40.91 9
8 10 RUN RUN SMART 2.2% 46.39 3
9 3 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 1.8% 54.18 11
10 6 SUNNYVALE 1.7% 57.51 12
11 12 HARMONY FIRE 1.5% 68.80 8
12 8 HALO OF SUCCESS 1.2% 80.37 5
STORMING DRAGON — wonMAJESTIC EXPRESSCHATEAUNEUFLIVEANDLETLIVESWEET BRIARWONDERSTARREZEKIRUN RUN SMARTEIGHTY LIGHT YEARSSUNNYVALEHARMONY FIREHALO OF SUCCESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 21.5

PLACE

2 19.5

10 40

11 10.1

QUINELLA

2,11 56

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 267

2,11 25

10,11 81

FORECAST

11,2 102

TIERCE

11,2,10 1,710

TRIO

2,10,11 549

FIRST 4

2,5,10,11 291

QUARTET

11,2,10,5 4,914

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,9/2,10,11 21,311

8TH DOUBLE

6/2 19

6/11 63.5