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Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 08:15

Race 8

Group 3 1400m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Group 3 over 1400m. PATCH OF THETA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with DROMBEG BANNER second and GREEN N WHITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.20.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly XB 1.20.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 7 2.2 1-3/4
2 7 DROMBEG BANNER Led early A Atzeni · P C Ng 11 8.4 1-3/4
3 9 GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 7.1 2
4 8 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 3 12.0 3-1/4
5 3 RED LION Z Purton · J Size 9 7.7 4-1/4
6 4 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly C Y Ho · P C Ng 1 17.0 4-3/4
7 2 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 4 13.0 5-1/4
8 10 TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 10 42.0 5-3/4
9 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 9.1 6-1/2
10 5 HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 2 63.0 6-1/2
11 11 FANTASTIC TREASURE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 129.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF THETA2. DROMBEG BANNER+1.75L3. GREEN N WHITE+2L4. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+3.25L5. RED LION+4.25L6. TAJ DRAGON+4.75L7. BEAUTY JOY+5.25L8. TOMODACHI KOKOROE+5.75L9. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE+6.5L10. HEALTHY HAPPY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (34.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PATCH OF THETA 34.5% 2.90 1
2 3 RED LION 12.5% 7.98 5
3 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 10.5% 9.56 9
4 7 DROMBEG BANNER 9.3% 10.72 2
5 9 GREEN N WHITE 7.5% 13.30 3
6 4 TAJ DRAGON 7.5% 13.36 6
7 2 BEAUTY JOY 7.2% 13.81 7
8 8 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 4.8% 20.75 4
9 10 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 3.0% 33.05 8
10 5 HEALTHY HAPPY 2.0% 48.94 10
11 11 FANTASTIC TREASURE 1.1% 94.63 11
PATCH OF THETA — wonRED LIONCALIFORNIA SPANGLEDROMBEG BANNERGREEN N WHITETAJ DRAGONBEAUTY JOYCHIU CHOW SPIRITTOMODACHI KOKOROEHEALTHY HAPPYFANTASTIC TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 22

PLACE

6 11.5

7 25

9 20.5

QUINELLA

6,7 103

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 43.5

6,9 31

7,9 83.5

FORECAST

6,7 160

TIERCE

6,7,9 722

TRIO

6,7,9 194

FIRST 4

6,7,8,9 382

QUARTET

6,7,9,8 4,685

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/6 80.5

7/7 82.5