Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 06:10
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Group 3 over 1000m. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by SH, with MAGIC CONTROL second and BEAUTY WAVES third. The 1.6 favourite MAGIC CONTROL finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 0.56.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 5.3 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | MAGIC CONTROL TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 5 | 1.6 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY WAVES E/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 4 | 3.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | WHIZZ KID V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 6 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | AWESOME TREASURE TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 49.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MAGIC CONTROL | 52.3% | 1.91 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 27.6% | 3.62 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY WAVES | 10.8% | 9.26 | 3 |
| 4 | 6 | AWESOME TREASURE | 3.9% | 25.33 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 2.7% | 37.09 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | WHIZZ KID | 2.6% | 38.06 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 53
PLACE
1 20
3 11.5
QUINELLA
1,3 32.5
FORECAST
1,3 112
TIERCE
1,3,2 191
TRIO
1,2,3 18
FIRST 4
1,2,3,4 21
QUARTET
1,3,2,4 525
3RD DOUBLE
1/1 128
1/3 10.5