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Sha Tin · 2025-01-01 · 05:10

Race 2

Class 5 1800m Course C 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2025-01-01 was Class 5 over 1800m. CHILLI BABA, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with ON THE LASH second and RED MAVERICK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite TURTLE AGAIN finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.49.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly B 1.49.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu 7 9.8 3/4
2 5 ON THE LASH Closed strongly V-/XB/PC1/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 11 10.0 3/4
3 13 RED MAVERICK Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 15.0 1-1/2
4 6 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 10 14.0 1-3/4
5 2 SMASHING EXPRESS Closed strongly E A Hamelin · J Size 1 6.7 2
6 3 GLUCK RACER Closed strongly B/H2 H Bentley · W K Mo 2 16.0 2-3/4
7 1 GO GO GO PC/TT Z Purton · W Y So 13 6.6 3
8 10 CHATEAU LE PECHE B M F Poon · K H Ting 9 10.0 3-3/4
9 12 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT H Bowman · T P Yung 3 4.5 8-1/4
10 14 JOYFUL CHAMPION B/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 8 21.0 10
11 11 GOLDEN FAIRY A Badel · W Y So 4 8.4 10-1/2
12 9 NICE BIRDIE TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 6 34.0 15-1/2
13 4 MARIO Led early B M L Yeung · D J Hall 12 83.0 24
8 FAMILY FORTUNE E C W Wong · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILLI BABA2. ON THE LASH+0.75L3. RED MAVERICK+1.5L4. SUPER HONG KONG+1.75L5. SMASHING EXPRESS+2L6. GLUCK RACER+2.75L7. GO GO GO+3L8. CHATEAU LE PECHE+3.75L9. TURTLE AGAIN+8.25L10. JOYFUL CHAMPION+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GO GO GO (20.6%) finished 7th — the winner CHILLI BABA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GO GO GO 20.6% 4.85 7
2 12 TURTLE AGAIN 14.9% 6.71 9
3 14 JOYFUL CHAMPION 10.1% 9.86 10
4 2 SMASHING EXPRESS 9.2% 10.87 5
5 6 SUPER HONG KONG 9.2% 10.91 4
6 11 GOLDEN FAIRY 7.3% 13.70 11
7 7 CHILLI BABA 5.2% 19.23 1
8 3 GLUCK RACER 5.0% 20.10 6
9 5 ON THE LASH 4.8% 20.88 2
10 10 CHATEAU LE PECHE 4.4% 22.93 8
11 9 NICE BIRDIE 4.0% 24.91 12
12 13 RED MAVERICK 3.6% 28.00 3
13 4 MARIO 1.8% 56.02 13
GO GO GOTURTLE AGAINJOYFUL CHAMPIONSMASHING EXPRESSSUPER HONG KONGGOLDEN FAIRYCHILLI BABA — wonGLUCK RACERON THE LASHCHATEAU LE PECHENICE BIRDIERED MAVERICKMARIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 98

PLACE

5 39

7 39

13 40

QUINELLA

5,7 626

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 208

5,13 278

7,13 300.5

FORECAST

7,5 1,248

TIERCE

7,5,13 14,661

TRIO

5,7,13 2,656

FIRST 4

5,6,7,13 16,781

QUARTET

7,5,13,6 372,597

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1,9/5 284

1,9/7 665