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Sha Tin · 2025-02-23 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SKY JEWELLERY Closed strongly 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 13 2.2 N
2 8 SOUTH STAR Closed strongly TT1 L Hewitson · F C Lor 2 5.8 N
3 3 HAROLD WIN B/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 14 9.4 2-1/2
4 7 LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 11.0 3
5 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 145.0 3
6 1 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall 4 22.0 3-1/4
7 10 SUPER CONTENTED Closed strongly TT K De Melo · C Fownes 1 55.0 3-3/4
8 9 GALE SAGA Closed strongly B K Teetan · P C Ng 10 10.0 4
9 14 YEE CHEONG RAIDER B/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 3 33.0 4-1/4
10 4 JOLLY RULER TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 7 13.0 4-3/4
11 13 SHINKANSEN Closed strongly CP/H/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 69.0 5-1/4
12 11 SHINE BRIGHT Led early B B Thompson · C H Yip 11 54.0 5-1/2
13 6 CELESTIAL PATCH TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 9 49.0 6-3/4
14 12 PEARL OF PANG'S B D McDonogh · K L Man 8 16.0 8-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-23 was Class 4 over 1400m. SKY JEWELLERY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by N, with SOUTH STAR second and HAROLD WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY JEWELLERY—2. SOUTH STAR+0.05L3. HAROLD WIN+2.5L4. LUCKY SAM GOR+3L5. CALIFORNIA BLITZ+3L6. NEVER TOO SOON+3.25L7. SUPER CONTENTED+3.75L8. GALE SAGA+4L9. YEE CHEONG RAIDER+4.25L10. JOLLY RULER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SKY JEWELLERY (27.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SKY JEWELLERY 27.2% 3.68 1
2 9 GALE SAGA 9.7% 10.27 8
3 10 SUPER CONTENTED 9.0% 11.16 7
4 8 SOUTH STAR 8.6% 11.64 2
5 7 LUCKY SAM GOR 8.2% 12.15 4
6 4 JOLLY RULER 7.7% 12.95 10
7 12 PEARL OF PANG'S 6.7% 15.00 14
8 6 CELESTIAL PATCH 5.3% 18.82 13
9 13 SHINKANSEN 4.4% 22.77 11
10 1 NEVER TOO SOON 4.3% 23.30 6
11 3 HAROLD WIN 4.2% 24.06 3
12 14 YEE CHEONG RAIDER 2.0% 49.52 9
13 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 1.4% 70.68 5
14 11 SHINE BRIGHT 1.3% 74.80 12
SKY JEWELLERY — wonGALE SAGASUPER CONTENTEDSOUTH STARLUCKY SAM GORJOLLY RULERPEARL OF PANG'SCELESTIAL PATCHSHINKANSENNEVER TOO SOONHAROLD WINYEE CHEONG RAIDERCALIFORNIA BLITZSHINE BRIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 22

PLACE

2 12.5

3 27

8 18.5

QUINELLA

2,8 77

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 49.5

2,8 34.5

3,8 92

FORECAST

2,8 107

TIERCE

2,8,3 1,126

TRIO

2,3,8 263

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 467

QUARTET

2,8,3,7 6,528

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 66.5

1/8 51.5