Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-02-23 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-23 was Class 4 over 1400m. SKY JEWELLERY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by N, with SOUTH STAR second and HAROLD WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SKY JEWELLERY Closed strongly 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 13 2.2 N
2 8 SOUTH STAR Closed strongly TT1 L Hewitson · F C Lor 2 5.8 N
3 3 HAROLD WIN B/XB C L Chau · K W Lui 14 9.4 2-1/2
4 7 LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 11.0 3
5 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 6 145.0 3
6 1 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall 4 22.0 3-1/4
7 10 SUPER CONTENTED Closed strongly TT K De Melo · C Fownes 1 55.0 3-3/4
8 9 GALE SAGA Closed strongly B K Teetan · P C Ng 10 10.0 4
9 14 YEE CHEONG RAIDER B/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 3 33.0 4-1/4
10 4 JOLLY RULER TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 7 13.0 4-3/4
11 13 SHINKANSEN Closed strongly CP/H/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 69.0 5-1/4
12 11 SHINE BRIGHT Led early B B Thompson · C H Yip 11 54.0 5-1/2
13 6 CELESTIAL PATCH TT1 A Atzeni · D Eustace 9 49.0 6-3/4
14 12 PEARL OF PANG'S B D McDonogh · K L Man 8 16.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY JEWELLERY2. SOUTH STAR+0.05L3. HAROLD WIN+2.5L4. LUCKY SAM GOR+3L5. CALIFORNIA BLITZ+3L6. NEVER TOO SOON+3.25L7. SUPER CONTENTED+3.75L8. GALE SAGA+4L9. YEE CHEONG RAIDER+4.25L10. JOLLY RULER+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SKY JEWELLERY (27.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SKY JEWELLERY 27.2% 3.68 1
2 9 GALE SAGA 9.7% 10.27 8
3 10 SUPER CONTENTED 9.0% 11.16 7
4 8 SOUTH STAR 8.6% 11.64 2
5 7 LUCKY SAM GOR 8.2% 12.15 4
6 4 JOLLY RULER 7.7% 12.95 10
7 12 PEARL OF PANG'S 6.7% 15.00 14
8 6 CELESTIAL PATCH 5.3% 18.82 13
9 13 SHINKANSEN 4.4% 22.77 11
10 1 NEVER TOO SOON 4.3% 23.30 6
11 3 HAROLD WIN 4.2% 24.06 3
12 14 YEE CHEONG RAIDER 2.0% 49.52 9
13 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 1.4% 70.68 5
14 11 SHINE BRIGHT 1.3% 74.80 12
SKY JEWELLERY — wonGALE SAGASUPER CONTENTEDSOUTH STARLUCKY SAM GORJOLLY RULERPEARL OF PANG'SCELESTIAL PATCHSHINKANSENNEVER TOO SOONHAROLD WINYEE CHEONG RAIDERCALIFORNIA BLITZSHINE BRIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 22

PLACE

2 12.5

3 27

8 18.5

QUINELLA

2,8 77

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 49.5

2,8 34.5

3,8 92

FORECAST

2,8 107

TIERCE

2,8,3 1,126

TRIO

2,3,8 263

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 467

QUARTET

2,8,3,7 6,528

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/2 66.5

1/8 51.5