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Sha Tin · 2025-02-23 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-02-23 was Class 4 over 1200m. CROSSBORDERPEGASUS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with AHREN second and BULB GENERAL third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 CROSSBORDERPEGASUS TT1 1.09.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 9 2.0 3/4
2 4 AHREN C L Chau · P F Yiu 8 13.0 3/4
3 7 BULB GENERAL CP1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards 14 81.0 3/4
4 10 WITH A SMILE TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 10.0 3/4
5 1 PHOENIX LIGHT H E C W Wong · C H Yip 5 18.0 1-1/4
6 14 BULB EMPEROR TT B Thompson · P C Ng 3 98.0 2-3/4
7 12 BIENVENUE B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 5.2 3-3/4
8 9 ELEGANT LIFE B-/V1 A Atzeni · T P Yung 1 19.0 4
9 13 KING OBERON B A Badel · D J Whyte 4 13.0 4-1/4
10 2 ALLURING LAOS CP/TT H Bentley · W K Mo 6 10.0 4-3/4
11 6 BLAZING BEAM SR L Ferraris · K H Ting 10 35.0 6
12 3 SUMMIT CHEERS B/TT P N Wong · D J Hall 13 67.0 6-1/4
13 11 JOYOUS LILY H-/TT J Orman · F C Lor 7 236.0 13
14 5 BEAUTY FORMULA TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 12 145.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CROSSBORDERPEGASUS2. AHREN+0.75L3. BULB GENERAL+0.75L4. WITH A SMILE+0.75L5. PHOENIX LIGHT+1.25L6. BULB EMPEROR+2.75L7. BIENVENUE+3.75L8. ELEGANT LIFE+4L9. KING OBERON+4.25L10. ALLURING LAOS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick CROSSBORDERPEGASUS (32.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 CROSSBORDERPEGASUS 32.2% 3.11 1
2 12 BIENVENUE 13.2% 7.59 7
3 13 KING OBERON 11.6% 8.58 9
4 9 ELEGANT LIFE 6.3% 15.91 8
5 10 WITH A SMILE 5.8% 17.27 4
6 4 AHREN 5.5% 18.11 2
7 2 ALLURING LAOS 5.4% 18.47 10
8 1 PHOENIX LIGHT 5.2% 19.41 5
9 6 BLAZING BEAM 4.5% 22.13 11
10 3 SUMMIT CHEERS 4.3% 23.37 12
11 7 BULB GENERAL 3.2% 31.31 3
12 14 BULB EMPEROR 1.6% 63.62 6
13 5 BEAUTY FORMULA 0.7% 153.16 14
14 11 JOYOUS LILY 0.6% 169.06 13
CROSSBORDERPEGASUS — wonBIENVENUEKING OBERONELEGANT LIFEWITH A SMILEAHRENALLURING LAOSPHOENIX LIGHTBLAZING BEAMSUMMIT CHEERSBULB GENERALBULB EMPERORBEAUTY FORMULAJOYOUS LILY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 20

PLACE

4 41.5

7 176

8 12

QUINELLA

4,8 138

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 1,085

4,8 65

7,8 296

FORECAST

8,4 211

TIERCE

8,4,7 6,364

TRIO

4,7,8 2,597

FIRST 4

4,7,8,10 3,733

QUARTET

8,4,7,10 47,990

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/4,7,8 57,132

3RD DOUBLE

2/4 38

2/8 35