Sha Tin · 2025-03-09 · 17:48
Race 11
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PATCH OF COSMO Closed strongly B 1.33.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | EMBRACES Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 2 | 9.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly XB H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 6 | 2.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 10 | 5.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 14 | JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 14 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | WINNING GOLD Closed strongly TT D McDonogh · W Y So | D McDonogh | W Y So | 9 | 86.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 13 | FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly SR- L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 5 | 36.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | HUGE WAVE TT R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 4 | 28.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | SUNSTRIDER B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 8 | 34.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON JOY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 13 | 11.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 2 | TOP GUN CP-/V1 J Orman · F C Lor | J Orman | F C Lor | 1 | 53.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | GHORGAN P1/TT1 L Ferraris · J Richards | L Ferraris | J Richards | 12 | 49.0 | 11-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-09 was Class 3 over 1600m. PATCH OF COSMO, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with EMBRACES second and LIGHT YEARS CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite LIGHT YEARS CHARM finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS | 22.1% | 4.52 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | EMBRACES | 13.0% | 7.69 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | DRAGON JOY | 6.8% | 14.65 | 12 |
| 5 | 5 | WINNING GOLD | 5.8% | 17.33 | 7 |
| 6 | 14 | JOY OF SPRING | 4.3% | 23.18 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNSTRIDER | 4.1% | 24.59 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | HUGE WAVE | 3.9% | 25.79 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | LIVEANDLETLIVE | 3.6% | 27.82 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | GHORGAN | 3.4% | 29.43 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | PATCH OF COSMO | 3.2% | 30.91 | 1 |
| 12 | 13 | FORTUNATE SON | 2.0% | 49.13 | 8 |
| 13 | 7 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS | 1.9% | 51.57 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | TOP GUN | 1.9% | 52.23 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 248.5
PLACE
4 12
9 21.5
10 56.5
QUINELLA
9,10 809.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 37
4,10 97.5
9,10 228.5
FORECAST
10,9 2,155
TIERCE
10,9,4 7,642
TRIO
4,9,10 524
FIRST 4
4,6,9,10 675
QUARTET
10,9,4,6 32,135
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
12/9 125.5
12/10 2,469
2ND TREBLE
11/12/9 473
11/12/10 7,797
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,10,12/4,9,10 74,541
SIX UP
5,14/1,2/2,6/5,11/10,12/9,10 37,986
5 [L Hewitson] —
11 [K L Man] —