Sha Tin · 2025-03-09 · 09:50
Race 11
Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-09 was Class 3 over 1600m. PATCH OF COSMO, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with EMBRACES second and LIGHT YEARS CHARM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.0 favourite LIGHT YEARS CHARM finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PATCH OF COSMO Closed strongly B 1.33.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 11 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | EMBRACES Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W K Mo | H Bentley | W K Mo | 2 | 9.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM Closed strongly XB H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 6 | 2.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 10 | 5.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 11 | LIVEANDLETLIVE Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 14 | JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 14 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | WINNING GOLD Closed strongly TT D McDonogh · W Y So | D McDonogh | W Y So | 9 | 86.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 13 | FORTUNATE SON Closed strongly SR- L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 5 | 36.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | HUGE WAVE TT R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 4 | 28.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | SUNSTRIDER B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 8 | 34.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON JOY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 13 | 11.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 2 | TOP GUN CP-/V1 J Orman · F C Lor | J Orman | F C Lor | 1 | 53.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 1 | GHORGAN P1/TT1 L Ferraris · J Richards | L Ferraris | J Richards | 12 | 49.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LIGHT YEARS CHARM | 23.9% | 4.19 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | BRILLIANT EXPRESS | 22.1% | 4.52 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | EMBRACES | 13.0% | 7.69 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | DRAGON JOY | 6.8% | 14.65 | 12 |
| 5 | 5 | WINNING GOLD | 5.8% | 17.33 | 7 |
| 6 | 14 | JOY OF SPRING | 4.3% | 23.18 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNSTRIDER | 4.1% | 24.59 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | HUGE WAVE | 3.9% | 25.79 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | LIVEANDLETLIVE | 3.6% | 27.82 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | GHORGAN | 3.4% | 29.43 | 14 |
| 11 | 10 | PATCH OF COSMO | 3.2% | 30.91 | 1 |
| 12 | 13 | FORTUNATE SON | 2.0% | 49.13 | 8 |
| 13 | 7 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS | 1.9% | 51.57 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | TOP GUN | 1.9% | 52.23 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 248.5
PLACE
4 12
9 21.5
10 56.5
QUINELLA
9,10 809.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 37
4,10 97.5
9,10 228.5
FORECAST
10,9 2,155
TIERCE
10,9,4 7,642
TRIO
4,9,10 524
FIRST 4
4,6,9,10 675
QUARTET
10,9,4,6 32,135
All pools (4 more)
10TH DOUBLE
12/9 125.5
12/10 2,469
2ND TREBLE
11/12/9 473
11/12/10 7,797
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,10,12/4,9,10 74,541
SIX UP
5,14/1,2/2,6/5,11/10,12/9,10 37,986
11 [K L Man] —
5 [L Hewitson] —