Sha Tin · 2025-03-09 · 14:01
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FLYING LUCK Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.34.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 6 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 14 | FIGHT TIME Closed strongly V P N Wong · D J Hall | P N Wong | D J Hall | 7 | 20.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly CP/XB H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 8 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SWEET SMILE Closed strongly H/B1 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | LUCKY SAM GOR Closed strongly XB L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 6.5 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | GALE SAGA Closed strongly B R Kingscote · P C Ng | R Kingscote | P C Ng | 11 | 26.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 13 | BEAUTIFUL WIN Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 9 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | KINGLY DEMEANOR Led early TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 13 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT CP/TT J Orman · J Richards | J Orman | J Richards | 2 | 137.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | BEAUTY LIVE V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 4 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 5 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 10 | BABY SATELLITE B2/TT A Hamelin · D Eustace | A Hamelin | D Eustace | 3 | 158.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | NAMJONG KINGDOM H1 H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 12 | 21.0 | 19-1/2 |
| — | 0 | HAPPY AGAIN M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | — | — | — |
| — | 7 | LITTLE SQUID D McDonogh · P F Yiu | D McDonogh | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-09 was Class 4 over 1600m. FLYING LUCK, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with FIGHT TIME second and SMILING COLLECTOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FLYING LUCK | 23.7% | 4.22 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | BEAUTIFUL WIN | 14.3% | 7.01 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | SWEET SMILE | 13.1% | 7.62 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | LUCKY SAM GOR | 8.8% | 11.33 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | GALE SAGA | 7.6% | 13.07 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUTY LIVE | 6.6% | 15.04 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 5.4% | 18.50 | 8 |
| 8 | 14 | FIGHT TIME | 5.1% | 19.74 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | GALLANT CROWN | 5.0% | 20.10 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 4.3% | 23.05 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | NAMJONG KINGDOM | 3.1% | 31.88 | 13 |
| 12 | 9 | ROSEWOOD FLEETFOOT | 2.0% | 50.94 | 9 |
| 13 | 10 | BABY SATELLITE | 0.9% | 112.21 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 34.5
PLACE
2 15.5
6 48
14 51
QUINELLA
2,14 301
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 105.5
2,14 103.5
6,14 399
FORECAST
2,14 512
TIERCE
2,14,6 5,084
TRIO
2,6,14 1,423
FIRST 4
2,6,12,14 1,369
QUARTET
2,14,6,12 31,285
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
4/2,7 165
4/14 152