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Sha Tin · 2025-03-09 · 07:05

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-09 was Class 4 over 1400m. THE AUSPICIOUS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with GALLANT EPOCH second and KA YING SUPERB third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite ETALON OR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly H 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 10 132.0 1/2
2 5 GALLANT EPOCH Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 7.7 1/2
3 3 KA YING SUPERB Closed strongly H/XB K Teetan · W K Mo 5 6.6 1/2
4 1 STELLAR SWIFT B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 11 5.1 3/4
5 13 JOLLY JUMPER Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · T P Yung 7 11.0 1-3/4
6 2 ETALON OR B/TT R Kingscote · P F Yiu 8 2.9 2-1/4
7 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 6 20.0 3-1/2
8 9 SUNNY Q Closed strongly K De Melo · W Y So 14 13.0 3-1/2
9 8 STRATHPEFFER Led early B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 12 12.0 3-3/4
10 12 HAPPY UNIVERSE P J Orman · K H Ting 3 25.0 5
11 11 COSMIC SPURS B/TT B Thompson · J Size 2 117.0 11
12 10 MUSANG KING B H Bentley · F C Lor 13 32.0 11-3/4
13 4 RICH HORSE Closed strongly H/XB D McDonogh · D J Hall 9 192.0 13
14 6 BOMBUS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 76.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE AUSPICIOUS2. GALLANT EPOCH+0.5L3. KA YING SUPERB+0.5L4. STELLAR SWIFT+0.75L5. JOLLY JUMPER+1.75L6. ETALON OR+2.25L7. WROTE A NEW PAGE+3.5L8. SUNNY Q+3.5L9. STRATHPEFFER+3.75L10. HAPPY UNIVERSE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GALLANT EPOCH (22.6%) finished 2nd — the winner THE AUSPICIOUS was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 GALLANT EPOCH 22.6% 4.42 2
2 2 ETALON OR 16.7% 5.99 6
3 3 KA YING SUPERB 12.5% 8.03 3
4 13 JOLLY JUMPER 9.2% 10.82 5
5 12 HAPPY UNIVERSE 8.2% 12.17 10
6 8 STRATHPEFFER 7.4% 13.49 9
7 1 STELLAR SWIFT 5.8% 17.34 4
8 7 WROTE A NEW PAGE 5.0% 20.16 7
9 10 MUSANG KING 3.9% 25.67 12
10 6 BOMBUS 2.7% 36.76 14
11 9 SUNNY Q 2.6% 38.59 8
12 4 RICH HORSE 1.3% 77.96 13
13 14 THE AUSPICIOUS 1.2% 85.34 1
14 11 COSMIC SPURS 1.0% 103.09 11
GALLANT EPOCHETALON ORKA YING SUPERBJOLLY JUMPERHAPPY UNIVERSESTRATHPEFFERSTELLAR SWIFTWROTE A NEW PAGEMUSANG KINGBOMBUSSUNNY QRICH HORSETHE AUSPICIOUS — wonCOSMIC SPURS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 1,326

PLACE

3 22.5

5 23.5

14 255

QUINELLA

5,14 5,584

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 76.5

3,14 1,601

5,14 1,568.5

FORECAST

14,5 15,433

TIERCE

14,5,3 100,665

TRIO

3,5,14 11,122

FIRST 4

1,3,5,14 9,504

QUARTET

14,5,3,1 319,138

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

7/5 102

7/14 8,299