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Sha Tin · 2025-03-23 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 4 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-23 was Class 4 over 1400m. SUPER EXPRESS, ridden by R Moore and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with ZETTA FORCE second and FORTUNE BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER EXPRESS Closed strongly TT1 1.21.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · J Size 3 1.7 1-1/4
2 8 ZETTA FORCE Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 1 17.0 1-1/4
3 7 FORTUNE BOY Closed strongly K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 13.0 2-3/4
4 13 SHINE BRIGHT Led early B K De Melo · C H Yip 2 67.0 2-3/4
5 3 THE HEIR Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 7 9.7 3-1/4
6 14 CASHISCASH B-/SR1/TT- P N Wong · D J Whyte 10 91.0 3-1/4
7 11 DRALA Closed strongly V-/H1 R Kingscote · P F Yiu 11 199.0 3-3/4
8 10 ICONICAL Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · J Richards 14 80.0 4-1/4
9 2 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT W Buick · W K Mo 12 14.0 4-3/4
10 4 TOP DRAGON H Bentley · W Y So 9 4.7 6-1/4
11 6 JOYFUL TREASURE XB/B1 C Soumillon · K W Lui 5 29.0 6-1/2
12 12 STORM RUNNER TT M F Poon · P C Ng 6 81.0 8-1/4
13 9 ALWAYS MY FOLKS H B Thompson · C W Chang 13 73.0 9-1/2
14 1 TURIN WARRIOR XB K C Leung · K L Man 4 46.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER EXPRESS2. ZETTA FORCE+1.25L3. FORTUNE BOY+2.75L4. SHINE BRIGHT+2.75L5. THE HEIR+3.25L6. CASHISCASH+3.25L7. DRALA+3.75L8. ICONICAL+4.25L9. FORERUNNER+4.75L10. TOP DRAGON+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER EXPRESS (32.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SUPER EXPRESS 32.0% 3.12 1
2 3 THE HEIR 16.0% 6.26 5
3 4 TOP DRAGON 14.7% 6.82 10
4 2 FORERUNNER 7.9% 12.67 9
5 7 FORTUNE BOY 5.6% 17.82 3
6 10 ICONICAL 4.6% 21.70 8
7 1 TURIN WARRIOR 4.1% 24.59 14
8 8 ZETTA FORCE 3.6% 27.53 2
9 6 JOYFUL TREASURE 3.2% 31.50 11
10 9 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 2.8% 35.53 13
11 14 CASHISCASH 2.3% 44.11 6
12 13 SHINE BRIGHT 1.6% 61.14 4
13 12 STORM RUNNER 1.0% 99.64 12
14 11 DRALA 0.6% 162.48 7
SUPER EXPRESS — wonTHE HEIRTOP DRAGONFORERUNNERFORTUNE BOYICONICALTURIN WARRIORZETTA FORCEJOYFUL TREASUREALWAYS MY FOLKSCASHISCASHSHINE BRIGHTSTORM RUNNERDRALA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 17.5

PLACE

5 12

7 28.5

8 36.5

QUINELLA

5,8 159

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 49

5,8 58.5

7,8 215

FORECAST

5,8 207

TIERCE

5,8,7 1,631

TRIO

5,7,8 570

FIRST 4

5,7,8,13 4,190

QUARTET

5,8,7,13 38,096