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Sha Tin · 2025-03-23 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 3 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-23 was Class 3 over 1400m. ENDEARED, ridden by C Williams and trained by J Size, won by SH, with ARMOUR WAR EAGLE second and BEAUTY GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite ARMOUR WAR EAGLE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 ENDEARED Closed strongly P-/XB 1.21.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Williams · J Size 1 5.9 SH
2 4 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE Closed strongly CP/XB L Hewitson · M Newnham 8 4.7 SH
3 13 BEAUTY GLORY Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 6.1 1/2
4 1 STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 10 25.0 3/4
5 11 MIGHTY COMMANDER Closed strongly H/TT R Kingscote · C Fownes 6 85.0 1-1/4
6 6 EVERYONE'S STAR J Moreira · F C Lor 9 5.2 1-3/4
7 10 BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly B1/SR1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 7.5 3-1/4
8 3 TAMRA BLITZ H/SR H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 5.1 4
9 7 SOLID IMPACT CP A Badel · D J Hall 13 20.0 4-3/4
10 2 POPE CODY TT1 J Orman · Y S Tsui 11 31.0 9-1/2
11 5 RAGGA BOMB XB1 D McDonogh · D Eustace 5 155.0 10
12 12 SUNNYVALE M Chadwick · W Y So 2 170.0 13-1/4
13 8 SMART TRIO B/TT B Thompson · C W Chang 12 244.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENDEARED2. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+0.1L3. BEAUTY GLORY+0.5L4. STAR MAC+0.75L5. MIGHTY COMMANDER+1.25L6. EVERYONE'S STAR+1.75L7. BEAUTY VIVA+3.25L8. TAMRA BLITZ+4L9. SOLID IMPACT+4.75L10. POPE CODY+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ENDEARED (24.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ENDEARED 24.7% 4.04 1
2 4 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 18.6% 5.38 2
3 3 TAMRA BLITZ 10.7% 9.32 8
4 1 STAR MAC 10.1% 9.92 4
5 6 EVERYONE'S STAR 9.5% 10.54 6
6 13 BEAUTY GLORY 7.0% 14.26 3
7 10 BEAUTY VIVA 6.4% 15.54 7
8 7 SOLID IMPACT 3.5% 28.56 9
9 5 RAGGA BOMB 3.4% 29.52 11
10 11 MIGHTY COMMANDER 2.7% 36.79 5
11 2 POPE CODY 2.2% 44.96 10
12 12 SUNNYVALE 0.6% 175.60 12
13 8 SMART TRIO 0.5% 186.40 13
ENDEARED — wonARMOUR WAR EAGLETAMRA BLITZSTAR MACEVERYONE'S STARBEAUTY GLORYBEAUTY VIVASOLID IMPACTRAGGA BOMBMIGHTY COMMANDERPOPE CODYSUNNYVALESMART TRIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 59

PLACE

4 16.5

9 21

13 25.5

QUINELLA

4,9 152.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 52

4,13 64

9,13 92

FORECAST

9,4 344

TIERCE

9,4,13 2,407

TRIO

4,9,13 420

FIRST 4

1,4,9,13 1,190

QUARTET

9,4,13,1 22,377

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/13/4 1,400

7/13/9 10,380

4TH DOUBLE

13/4 214

13/9 2,041.5