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Sha Tin · 2025-03-23 · 08:10

Race 7

4YO 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2025-03-23 was 4YO over 2000m. CAP FERRAT, ridden by C Williams and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with MY WISH second and PACKING ANGEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite RUBYLOT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 2.00.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 CAP FERRAT Closed strongly 2.00.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Williams · K W Lui 2 26.0 SH
2 2 MY WISH Closed strongly L Ferraris · M Newnham 14 6.1 SH
3 6 PACKING ANGEL Closed strongly TT J Moreira · K W Lui 6 6.6 N
4 13 LO RIDER Led early H1 H Bowman · C Fownes 1 19.0 1-1/2
5 1 RUBYLOT Closed strongly CP B Avdulla · D A Hayes 4 2.9 1-3/4
6 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS Closed strongly A Atzeni · P C Ng 8 11.0 2
7 5 BUNDLE AWARD Closed strongly E B Thompson · J Size 9 11.0 2
8 7 MICKLEY B-/TT R Moore · J Size 3 23.0 2-1/4
9 10 STEPS AHEAD Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 13 82.0 2-1/2
10 4 STUNNING PEACH Closed strongly CP1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 24.0 3-1/2
11 11 CALIFORNIATOTALITY B/TT J Orman · A S Cruz 11 29.0 3-3/4
12 14 BEAUTY ALLIANCE A Badel · J Size 5 25.0 5
13 12 MARKWIN H-/TT W Buick · W K Mo 10 23.0 7
14 8 NOISY BOY TT C Soumillon · C H Yip 7 12.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAP FERRAT2. MY WISH+0.1L3. PACKING ANGEL+0.05L4. LO RIDER+1.5L5. RUBYLOT+1.75L6. JOHANNES BRAHMS+2L7. BUNDLE AWARD+2L8. MICKLEY+2.25L9. STEPS AHEAD+2.5L10. STUNNING PEACH+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING ANGEL (15.8%) finished 3rd — the winner CAP FERRAT was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PACKING ANGEL 15.8% 6.34 3
2 1 RUBYLOT 14.4% 6.92 5
3 2 MY WISH 12.9% 7.73 2
4 14 BEAUTY ALLIANCE 12.3% 8.14 12
5 13 LO RIDER 8.1% 12.27 4
6 5 BUNDLE AWARD 7.2% 13.86 7
7 3 JOHANNES BRAHMS 5.3% 19.05 6
8 8 NOISY BOY 4.8% 20.82 14
9 4 STUNNING PEACH 4.8% 20.89 10
10 7 MICKLEY 3.7% 27.29 8
11 12 MARKWIN 3.0% 32.94 13
12 9 CAP FERRAT 2.7% 37.66 1
13 11 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 2.6% 37.94 11
14 10 STEPS AHEAD 2.4% 42.39 9
PACKING ANGELRUBYLOTMY WISHBEAUTY ALLIANCELO RIDERBUNDLE AWARDJOHANNES BRAHMSNOISY BOYSTUNNING PEACHMICKLEYMARKWINCAP FERRAT — wonCALIFORNIATOTALITYSTEPS AHEAD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 267

PLACE

2 21.5

6 24

9 70.5

QUINELLA

2,9 735.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 82.5

2,9 233

6,9 295

FORECAST

9,2 1,913

TIERCE

9,2,6 16,229

TRIO

2,6,9 2,027

FIRST 4

2,6,9,13 6,354

QUARTET

9,2,6,13 214,448

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

4/2 109

4/9 2,516