Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2025-04-06 · 09:55

Race 10

Class 3 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-06 was Class 3 over 1600m. SKY JEWELLERY, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 2, with MORGAN SUCCESS second and STAR MAC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SKY JEWELLERY Closed strongly 1.34.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 9 1.5 2
2 12 MORGAN SUCCESS Closed strongly XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 10 42.0 2
3 3 STAR MAC Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · D A Hayes 6 8.5 2-3/4
4 2 TOURBILLON PRINCE Led early TT J Orman · T P Yung 12 35.0 3
5 10 FLYING LUCK Closed strongly B/H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 13 11.0 4-1/2
6 11 GLORIOUS SUCCESS Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 7 14.0 5-1/4
7 7 CHING B L Hewitson · C W Chang 5 17.0 6
8 4 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 51.0 6-1/4
9 6 LUPO SOLITARIO CP L Ferraris · F C Lor 14 117.0 8-3/4
10 14 SOLID WIN TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 16.0 9-1/4
11 5 LUCK IS BACK TT K De Melo · K W Lui 1 127.0 9-1/2
12 1 GHORGAN P-/XB1/TT K C Leung · J Richards 11 166.0 11-1/2
13 13 THE ABSOLUTE CP/XB/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 3 31.0 12
14 8 DRAGON JOY SR/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 19.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY JEWELLERY2. MORGAN SUCCESS+2L3. STAR MAC+2.75L4. TOURBILLON PRINCE+3L5. FLYING LUCK+4.5L6. GLORIOUS SUCCESS+5.25L7. CHING+6L8. THE BEST PEACH+6.25L9. LUPO SOLITARIO+8.75L10. SOLID WIN+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SKY JEWELLERY (35.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SKY JEWELLERY 35.6% 2.81 1
2 11 GLORIOUS SUCCESS 9.3% 10.78 6
3 10 FLYING LUCK 8.5% 11.73 5
4 3 STAR MAC 7.1% 14.07 3
5 14 SOLID WIN 6.5% 15.47 10
6 12 MORGAN SUCCESS 6.4% 15.53 2
7 7 CHING 5.8% 17.36 7
8 8 DRAGON JOY 5.6% 17.83 14
9 13 THE ABSOLUTE 4.4% 22.71 13
10 4 THE BEST PEACH 3.1% 32.01 8
11 6 LUPO SOLITARIO 3.0% 33.02 9
12 2 TOURBILLON PRINCE 2.6% 38.89 4
13 5 LUCK IS BACK 1.2% 81.64 11
14 1 GHORGAN 0.9% 115.74 12
SKY JEWELLERY — wonGLORIOUS SUCCESSFLYING LUCKSTAR MACSOLID WINMORGAN SUCCESSCHINGDRAGON JOYTHE ABSOLUTETHE BEST PEACHLUPO SOLITARIOTOURBILLON PRINCELUCK IS BACKGHORGAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 15.5

PLACE

3 19.5

9 10.5

12 79.5

QUINELLA

9,12 248.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 26

3,12 342

9,12 101

FORECAST

9,12 329

TIERCE

9,12,3 1,934

TRIO

3,9,12 515

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 3,042

QUARTET

9,12,3,2 42,008

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

9/2/9 279

9/2/12 1,909

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,7/3,9,12 23,291

9TH DOUBLE

2/9 45.5

2/12 244

SIX UP

1,12/1,3,14/1,5/4,9/2,7/9,12 394

12/3,14/5/9/2/9 54,176

4 [B Avdulla]

2 [D Eustace]