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Sha Tin · 2025-04-06 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-06 was Class 4 over 1200m. SEA SAPPHIRE, ridden by B Thompson and trained by D Eustace, won by N, with AKASHVANI second and LUCKY ARCHANGEL third. The 3.2 favourite AKASHVANI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SEA SAPPHIRE TT 1.09.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · D Eustace 9 13.0 N
2 1 AKASHVANI L Hewitson · D A Hayes 14 3.2 N
3 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B M F Poon · F C Lor 1 23.0 3-1/4
4 9 SIGHT DREAMER TT H Bowman · J Size 12 10.0 4
5 7 STAR FIGURE CP1/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 5 22.0 4-1/2
6 3 GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT P N Wong · K L Man 6 31.0 4-3/4
7 2 FLASH CURRENT TT H Bentley · K H Ting 8 3.4 5
8 6 LUCKY KING B/H1/XB1/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 7 87.0 6-3/4
9 13 BRAVE OF FRIENDS CP/XB K De Melo · D J Whyte 10 174.0 6-3/4
10 14 EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 54.0 7-1/4
11 10 JOYFUL TREASURE B/XB J Orman · K W Lui 11 39.0 7-3/4
12 5 LEGEND STAR TT1 L Ferraris · C S Shum 13 117.0 8-3/4
13 8 SUNNY SING SPIRIT CP1 K Teetan · W Y So 4 16.0 11-1/2
14 11 AFFIRM V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 2 5.2 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SEA SAPPHIRE2. AKASHVANI+0.05L3. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+3.25L4. SIGHT DREAMER+4L5. STAR FIGURE+4.5L6. GOLDEN LUCK+4.75L7. FLASH CURRENT+5L8. LUCKY KING+6.75L9. BRAVE OF FRIENDS+6.75L10. EXCELLENT DADDY+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AFFIRM (25.8%) finished 14th — the winner SEA SAPPHIRE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 AFFIRM 25.8% 3.88 14
2 1 AKASHVANI 19.2% 5.21 2
3 2 FLASH CURRENT 12.3% 8.12 7
4 9 SIGHT DREAMER 9.5% 10.51 4
5 8 SUNNY SING SPIRIT 7.8% 12.80 13
6 3 GOLDEN LUCK 6.0% 16.72 6
7 5 LEGEND STAR 3.5% 28.87 12
8 7 STAR FIGURE 3.0% 32.85 5
9 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 2.7% 36.42 3
10 12 SEA SAPPHIRE 2.7% 36.69 1
11 14 EXCELLENT DADDY 2.6% 39.12 10
12 10 JOYFUL TREASURE 2.4% 41.79 11
13 6 LUCKY KING 1.3% 76.94 8
14 13 BRAVE OF FRIENDS 1.2% 83.73 9
AFFIRMAKASHVANIFLASH CURRENTSIGHT DREAMERSUNNY SING SPIRITGOLDEN LUCKLEGEND STARSTAR FIGURELUCKY ARCHANGELSEA SAPPHIRE — wonEXCELLENT DADDYJOYFUL TREASURELUCKY KINGBRAVE OF FRIENDS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 135.5

PLACE

1 15

4 47

12 38.5

QUINELLA

1,12 309.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 132

1,12 95

4,12 453.5

FORECAST

12,1 844

TIERCE

12,1,4 14,641

TRIO

1,4,12 1,986

FIRST 4

1,4,9,12 3,351

QUARTET

12,1,4,9 96,396

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/3/1 136

9/3/12 4,861

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 35.5

3/12 1,166