Sha Tin · 2025-04-06 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 3 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-06 was Class 3 over 1400m. BRILLIANT EXPRESS, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS second and THE BOOM BOX third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite THE BOOM BOX finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.68

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	BRILLIANT EXPRESS Closed strongly 1.21.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	6	134 lb	2.6	N
2	7	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · T P Yung	B Thompson	T P Yung	13	126 lb	63.0	N
3	1	THE BOOM BOX Closed strongly Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	2	135 lb	1.8	3/4
4	11	LOST CHILD Closed strongly M L Yeung · C W Chang	M L Yeung	C W Chang	4	121 lb	64.0	1-1/4
5	5	TURIN STARSPANGLED Led early TT K C Leung · P C Ng	K C Leung	P C Ng	5	132 lb	59.0	1-1/4
6	6	KEEFY Closed strongly M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	10	131 lb	46.0	1-1/4
7	4	SILO Closed strongly CP H Bowman · M Newnham	H Bowman	M Newnham	12	132 lb	19.0	2-1/2
8	13	RIDING TOGETHER TT M Chadwick · D Eustace	M Chadwick	D Eustace	3	120 lb	34.0	3-1/2
9	12	AURIO Closed strongly SR/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	11	120 lb	43.0	3-3/4
10	9	FORTUNATE SON B1 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	8	123 lb	27.0	4
11	3	SUPERB BOY TT L Ferraris · K W Lui	L Ferraris	K W Lui	7	134 lb	35.0	5-3/4
12	8	IGOR STRAVINSKY TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	1	123 lb	68.0	7-1/4
13	10	SOLID IMPACT CP A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	9	123 lb	19.0	8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick THE BOOM BOX (43.9%) finished 3rd — the winner BRILLIANT EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	THE BOOM BOX	43.9%	2.28	3	1.8
2	2	BRILLIANT EXPRESS	23.0%	4.35	1	2.6
3	4	SILO	7.8%	12.79	7	19.0
4	6	KEEFY	3.7%	26.97	6	46.0
5	12	AURIO	3.2%	30.78	9	43.0
6	5	TURIN STARSPANGLED	3.1%	32.61	5	59.0
7	9	FORTUNATE SON	3.0%	32.88	10	27.0
8	10	SOLID IMPACT	2.8%	35.40	13	19.0
9	8	IGOR STRAVINSKY	2.3%	43.30	12	68.0
10	3	SUPERB BOY	2.2%	46.23	11	35.0
11	7	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS	1.9%	52.74	2	63.0
12	13	RIDING TOGETHER	1.8%	55.76	8	34.0
13	11	LOST CHILD	1.2%	81.97	4	64.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 26.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 12.5

7 107.5

QUINELLA

2,7 681.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 14.5

1,7 164.5

2,7 159.5

FORECAST

2,7 849

TIERCE

2,7,1 2,155

TRIO

1,2,7 177

FIRST 4

1,2,7,11 1,740

QUARTET

2,7,1,11 51,939

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

9/2 163

9/7 347.5

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