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Sha Tin · 2025-04-06 · 06:20

Race 4

Class 4 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-04-06 was Class 4 over 1600m. GOOD LUCK BABE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D Eustace, won by SH, with MATSU VICTOR second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite BEAUTY VIVA finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.34.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GOOD LUCK BABE Wire to wire XB/TT 1.34.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D Eustace 1 5.1 SH
2 4 MATSU VICTOR Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K W Lui 3 12.0 SH
3 6 ORIENTAL SMOKE Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 8 6.1 N
4 12 SPECIAL HEDGE V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 12 7.8 2-1/4
5 1 BEAUTY VIVA Closed strongly B-/SR- Z Purton · P C Ng 10 4.3 2-1/2
6 10 SMILING COLLECTOR CP/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 6 10.0 2-3/4
7 7 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · W Y So 5 20.0 5-3/4
8 14 PING HAI COMET Closed strongly H A Atzeni · J Size 14 72.0 5-3/4
9 5 TIMES TABLE Closed strongly CP B Thompson · M Newnham 13 34.0 6-1/4
10 2 BEATO Closed strongly V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 5.4 6-1/4
11 8 GENERAL SMART B/XB/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 156.0 12-1/4
12 13 CELTIC TIMES B-/V1/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 4 101.0 13
13 11 LITTLE SQUID E1/TT1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 65.0 17-1/4
14 9 VICTORY PATCH TT C L Chau · W K Mo 2 91.0 29-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD LUCK BABE2. MATSU VICTOR+0.1L3. ORIENTAL SMOKE+0.05L4. SPECIAL HEDGE+2.25L5. BEAUTY VIVA+2.5L6. SMILING COLLECTOR+2.75L7. OWNERS' PRAISE+5.75L8. PING HAI COMET+5.75L9. TIMES TABLE+6.25L10. BEATO+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BEAUTY VIVA (16.9%) finished 5th — the winner GOOD LUCK BABE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY VIVA 16.9% 5.90 5
2 2 BEATO 14.9% 6.70 10
3 3 GOOD LUCK BABE 14.1% 7.08 1
4 4 MATSU VICTOR 10.5% 9.55 2
5 6 ORIENTAL SMOKE 9.9% 10.15 3
6 10 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.6% 10.40 6
7 12 SPECIAL HEDGE 7.5% 13.42 4
8 7 OWNERS' PRAISE 4.5% 22.45 7
9 14 PING HAI COMET 3.7% 26.93 8
10 13 CELTIC TIMES 2.9% 34.56 12
11 5 TIMES TABLE 2.1% 48.01 9
12 11 LITTLE SQUID 1.3% 79.68 13
13 9 VICTORY PATCH 1.1% 87.72 14
14 8 GENERAL SMART 1.1% 93.13 11
BEAUTY VIVABEATOGOOD LUCK BABE — wonMATSU VICTORORIENTAL SMOKESMILING COLLECTORSPECIAL HEDGEOWNERS' PRAISEPING HAI COMETCELTIC TIMESTIMES TABLELITTLE SQUIDVICTORY PATCHGENERAL SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 51.5

PLACE

3 19.5

4 35.5

6 20.5

QUINELLA

3,4 242.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 75.5

3,6 68

4,6 122.5

FORECAST

3,4 380

TIERCE

3,4,6 2,037

TRIO

3,4,6 452

FIRST 4

3,4,6,12 1,025

QUARTET

3,4,6,12 14,924

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,9/3,4,6 3,430

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 108

9/4 43.5