Sha Tin · 2025-05-10 · 15:02
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly TT 1.22.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 1.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | LUCKY FIONN Closed strongly CP/TT K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE Closed strongly V-/B2/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 6 | 37.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | CALIFORNIA SUN Closed strongly CP1/XB1/TT1 Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 11 | 193.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | ARDEN Closed strongly B/E1/TT J Orman · J Size | J Orman | J Size | 13 | 207.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | STAR BROSE Closed strongly TT1 H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 14 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | FORTUNE STAR Led early TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | FUN TOGETHER Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly CP-/XB/V2 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 23.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | INNO CENTURY A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 3 | 22.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | NEVER TOO SOON CP B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 2 | 18.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | SECOND TO NONE L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 133.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | MAGIC COMBO CP/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 5 | 170.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 13 | E UNIVERSE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 111.0 | 12-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-10 was Class 4 over 1400m. PATCH OF STARS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with LUCKY FIONN second and BEAUTY LIVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | INNO CENTURY | 9.1% | 11.00 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | LUCKY FIONN | 7.4% | 13.45 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | NEVER TOO SOON | 7.0% | 14.25 | 11 |
| 5 | 14 | SMILING COLLECTOR | 6.0% | 16.78 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | FORTUNE STAR | 5.6% | 17.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | STAR BROSE | 4.9% | 20.28 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | FUN TOGETHER | 3.3% | 30.48 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | SECOND TO NONE | 3.2% | 31.45 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | CALIFORNIA SUN | 2.8% | 35.85 | 4 |
| 11 | 9 | BEAUTY LIVE | 2.4% | 41.69 | 3 |
| 12 | 13 | E UNIVERSE | 2.1% | 47.02 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | MAGIC COMBO | 1.0% | 101.68 | 13 |
| 14 | 11 | ARDEN | 0.8% | 120.39 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 13.5
PLACE
1 10.1
3 20.5
9 60
QUINELLA
1,3 47.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 23
1,9 70
3,9 210
FORECAST
1,3 66
TIERCE
1,3,9 890
TRIO
1,3,9 358
FIRST 4
1,3,6,9 7,074
QUARTET
1,3,9,6 32,801
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/5/1 481
1/5/3 282
4TH DOUBLE
5/1 296
5/3 159