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Sha Tin · 2025-05-10 · 06:35

Race 4

Class 4 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-05-10 was Class 4 over 1650m. CHARMING STEED, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with MEEPMEEP second and PRECISION GOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FASHION LEGEND finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CHARMING STEED Closed strongly TT 1.39.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 11.0 1/2
2 11 MEEPMEEP Closed strongly E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size 14 8.8 1/2
3 7 PRECISION GOAL Closed strongly BO/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes 13 15.0 2-1/4
4 9 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B Thompson · C W Chang 1 8.8 2-1/2
5 10 SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 17.0 2-1/2
6 8 FASHION LEGEND A Atzeni · D Eustace 2 3.2 3
7 12 VIVA CHALEUR Closed strongly H/PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 10 8.2 3-3/4
8 13 LUCKY IMPACT Closed strongly M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 5.1 4-3/4
9 3 WONDERSTAR Led early B C L Chau · Y S Tsui 5 24.0 7-1/2
10 4 FLOOF TT J Orman · P F Yiu 4 24.0 7-1/2
11 6 MATTERS MOST CP-/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 7 69.0 9
12 14 PHANTOM CYCLONE Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 12 91.0 15-1/4
13 2 CONSPIRATOR H/P/XB L Hewitson · M Newnham 11 140.0 28-1/2
14 1 G LINER H/P/XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 9 30.0 30

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARMING STEED2. MEEPMEEP+0.5L3. PRECISION GOAL+2.25L4. FOREVER FOLKS+2.5L5. SPANGLE FORTUNE+2.5L6. FASHION LEGEND+3L7. VIVA CHALEUR+3.75L8. LUCKY IMPACT+4.75L9. WONDERSTAR+7.5L10. FLOOF+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FASHION LEGEND (21.1%) finished 6th — the winner CHARMING STEED was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 FASHION LEGEND 21.1% 4.73 6
2 11 MEEPMEEP 12.6% 7.95 2
3 9 FOREVER FOLKS 10.7% 9.36 4
4 7 PRECISION GOAL 8.1% 12.42 3
5 13 LUCKY IMPACT 7.9% 12.71 8
6 10 SPANGLE FORTUNE 6.6% 15.09 5
7 12 VIVA CHALEUR 5.8% 17.30 7
8 1 G LINER 5.5% 18.15 14
9 5 CHARMING STEED 5.4% 18.54 1
10 4 FLOOF 5.0% 20.14 10
11 3 WONDERSTAR 4.6% 21.75 9
12 6 MATTERS MOST 3.4% 29.26 11
13 14 PHANTOM CYCLONE 2.2% 44.81 12
14 2 CONSPIRATOR 1.2% 84.94 13
FASHION LEGENDMEEPMEEPFOREVER FOLKSPRECISION GOALLUCKY IMPACTSPANGLE FORTUNEVIVA CHALEURG LINERCHARMING STEED — wonFLOOFWONDERSTARMATTERS MOSTPHANTOM CYCLONECONSPIRATOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 113

PLACE

5 31.5

7 48

11 37.5

QUINELLA

5,11 649.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 196.5

5,11 197.5

7,11 258

FORECAST

5,11 1,286

TIERCE

5,11,7 12,509

TRIO

5,7,11 2,720

FIRST 4

5,7,9,11 3,790

QUARTET

5,11,7,9 104,429

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,11/5,7,11 54,776

3RD DOUBLE

1/5 300.5

1/11 66