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Sha Tin · 2025-10-19 · 06:30

Race 4

Class 4 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-19 was Class 4 over 1400m. THE AUSPICIOUS, ridden by J Orman and trained by Y S Tsui, won, with SUPER LOVE second and THE GOLDEN KNIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite FUN TOGETHER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1:21.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 THE AUSPICIOUS Closed strongly 1:21.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · Y S Tsui 9 6.8
2 4 SUPER LOVE Closed strongly H Bowman · C H Yip 11 50.0 3/4
3 6 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 19.0 1
4 1 FUN TOGETHER C L Chau · C W Chang 3 2.7 1-1/4
5 3 RAGING RAPIDS Closed strongly B Avdulla · J Size 12 19.0 1-1/2
6 9 AUTUMN VIBES Z Purton · J Richards 13 4.9 1-1/2
7 14 RATTAN GALAXY Closed strongly M F Poon · K L Man 6 16.0 2-1/4
8 2 WE CAN PARTY Closed strongly E C W Wong · D Eustace 7 38.0 3
9 5 CALIFORNIA MOXIE Closed strongly Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 7.2 3-1/4
10 7 RUN RUN SMART Led early A Badel · F C Lor 8 24.0 3-1/2
11 10 LUCKY MAN D Probert · D A Hayes 14 27.0 4-1/4
12 13 BLAZING BEAM K Teetan · K H Ting 4 24.0 5-1/2
13 11 CARRYON SMILING R Kingscote · W Y So 10 45.0 5-3/4
14 12 ROMANTIC PARTY H T Mo · P F Yiu 1 116.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE AUSPICIOUS2. SUPER LOVE+0.75L3. THE GOLDEN KNIGHT+1L4. FUN TOGETHER+1.25L5. RAGING RAPIDS+1.5L6. AUTUMN VIBES+1.5L7. RATTAN GALAXY+2.25L8. WE CAN PARTY+3L9. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+3.25L10. RUN RUN SMART+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FUN TOGETHER (24.9%) finished 4th — the winner THE AUSPICIOUS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FUN TOGETHER 24.9% 4.01 4
2 8 THE AUSPICIOUS 17.0% 5.88 1
3 9 AUTUMN VIBES 15.0% 6.66 6
4 3 RAGING RAPIDS 9.6% 10.36 5
5 5 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 7.8% 12.85 9
6 10 LUCKY MAN 4.3% 23.18 11
7 7 RUN RUN SMART 4.3% 23.24 10
8 13 BLAZING BEAM 3.7% 27.18 12
9 4 SUPER LOVE 3.6% 27.96 2
10 11 CARRYON SMILING 2.7% 36.87 13
11 14 RATTAN GALAXY 2.4% 41.83 7
12 6 THE GOLDEN KNIGHT 2.1% 47.04 3
13 2 WE CAN PARTY 1.5% 66.43 8
14 12 ROMANTIC PARTY 1.0% 97.51 14
FUN TOGETHERTHE AUSPICIOUS — wonAUTUMN VIBESRAGING RAPIDSCALIFORNIA MOXIELUCKY MANRUN RUN SMARTBLAZING BEAMSUPER LOVECARRYON SMILINGRATTAN GALAXYTHE GOLDEN KNIGHTWE CAN PARTYROMANTIC PARTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 68

PLACE

4 126.5

6 51.5

8 20

QUINELLA

4,8 1,558.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 1,445.5

4,8 583

6,8 221.5

FORECAST

8,4 3,218

TIERCE

8,4,6 42,125

TRIO

4,6,8 8,207

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 5,783

QUARTET

8,4,6,1 176,302

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,11,14/F 3,301

3RD DOUBLE

11/4 610

11/8 578.5