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Sha Tin · 2025-10-19 · 07:45

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-19 was Class 4 over 1200m. PEJIBAYE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won, with EMBLAZON second and GOOD CHAP third. The 1.7 favourite PACKING PHOENIX finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1:08.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 PEJIBAYE 1:08.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 4.4
2 4 EMBLAZON C L Chau · W K Mo 6 8.4 2-1/4
3 10 GOOD CHAP J Orman · D J Hall 5 129.0 3-1/2
4 2 AEROVOLANIC C Y Ho · P C Ng 12 57.0 3-3/4
5 3 PACKING PHOENIX Z Purton · K W Lui 9 1.7 5-1/4
6 1 KING ALLOY R Kingscote · K H Ting 8 28.0 5-1/2
7 7 PROUD BOX H Bowman · W Y So 11 26.0 6-1/4
8 6 KA YING GLORY K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 14.0 6-1/4
9 11 PATCH OF TIME L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 13.0 6-1/2
10 5 SAVVY WARRIOR A Atzeni · D Eustace 3 120.0 8-3/4
11 12 TOP TO SKY K C Leung · C H Yip 7 102.0 10-1/2
12 9 GLORIOUS KINGDOM M F Poon · P F Yiu 10 94.0 11-1/4
1 SPICY STANDARD B Avdulla · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PEJIBAYE2. EMBLAZON+2.25L3. GOOD CHAP+3.5L4. AEROVOLANIC+3.75L5. PACKING PHOENIX+5.25L6. KING ALLOY+5.5L7. PROUD BOX+6.25L8. KA YING GLORY+6.25L9. PATCH OF TIME+6.5L10. SAVVY WARRIOR+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PACKING PHOENIX (46.2%) finished 5th — the winner PEJIBAYE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PACKING PHOENIX 46.2% 2.16 5
2 8 PEJIBAYE 12.4% 8.07 1
3 11 PATCH OF TIME 7.8% 12.85 9
4 6 KA YING GLORY 6.5% 15.33 8
5 7 PROUD BOX 5.8% 17.27 7
6 4 EMBLAZON 5.3% 18.84 2
7 2 AEROVOLANIC 5.0% 19.85 4
8 1 KING ALLOY 4.2% 23.96 6
9 5 SAVVY WARRIOR 2.8% 35.94 10
10 9 GLORIOUS KINGDOM 1.7% 58.10 12
11 12 TOP TO SKY 1.2% 84.62 11
12 10 GOOD CHAP 1.1% 93.36 3
PACKING PHOENIXPEJIBAYE — wonPATCH OF TIMEKA YING GLORYPROUD BOXEMBLAZONAEROVOLANICKING ALLOYSAVVY WARRIORGLORIOUS KINGDOMTOP TO SKYGOOD CHAP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 44.5

PLACE

4 19

8 12.5

10 200

QUINELLA

4,8 144

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 38.5

4,10 1,142

8,10 807

FORECAST

8,4 274

TIERCE

8,4,10 30,290

TRIO

4,8,10 6,894

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 30,363

QUARTET

8,4,10,2 414,468

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,5/4,8,10 966,548

5TH DOUBLE

5/4 64

5/8 323.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,8/1,2,5/Any Combination 86,835