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Sha Tin · 2025-10-19 · 06:00

Race 3

Class 4 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-19 was Class 4 over 1800m. SPECIAL HEDGE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by C W Chang, won, with FIREFOOT second and SHARPEN BRIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite DOUBLE WIN finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1:46.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly 1:46.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 12.0
2 14 FIREFOOT Led early H Bentley · W Y So 6 7.1 SH
3 1 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 10 37.0 2-1/2
4 4 CHARITY TOGETHER Closed strongly R Kingscote · D Eustace 14 122.0 3-1/4
5 8 OCEAN IMPACT Closed strongly K De Melo · D J Whyte 4 14.0 3-1/2
6 2 PACKING HURRICANE H Bowman · P C Ng 13 73.0 4-1/4
7 3 BEAUTY VIVA Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 3.7 4-3/4
8 12 STAR BROSE A Atzeni · D A Hayes 9 36.0 4-3/4
9 9 MISSION STRIKE L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 16.0 5-1/4
10 13 DOUBLE WIN Closed strongly K C Leung · K L Man 3 2.3 6-1/4
11 7 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON C L Chau · W K Mo 12 152.0 6-1/4
12 5 ILLUMINOUS J Orman · F C Lor 11 119.0 7
13 6 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly K Teetan · C S Shum 7 23.0 9
14 10 PERFECT PAIRING B Avdulla · J Size 1 27.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPECIAL HEDGE2. FIREFOOT+0.1L3. SHARPEN BRIGHT+2.5L4. CHARITY TOGETHER+3.25L5. OCEAN IMPACT+3.5L6. PACKING HURRICANE+4.25L7. BEAUTY VIVA+4.75L8. STAR BROSE+4.75L9. MISSION STRIKE+5.25L10. DOUBLE WIN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick BEAUTY VIVA (41.0%) finished 7th — the winner SPECIAL HEDGE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY VIVA 41.0% 2.44 7
2 13 DOUBLE WIN 12.7% 7.89 10
3 14 FIREFOOT 7.9% 12.72 2
4 9 MISSION STRIKE 6.5% 15.42 9
5 12 STAR BROSE 5.1% 19.71 8
6 6 FOREVER FOLKS 4.1% 24.30 13
7 2 PACKING HURRICANE 3.8% 26.32 6
8 8 OCEAN IMPACT 3.5% 28.24 5
9 11 SPECIAL HEDGE 3.5% 28.51 1
10 10 PERFECT PAIRING 3.4% 29.35 14
11 7 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 2.7% 36.61 11
12 4 CHARITY TOGETHER 2.2% 45.18 4
13 1 SHARPEN BRIGHT 2.2% 45.55 3
14 5 ILLUMINOUS 1.4% 69.48 12
BEAUTY VIVADOUBLE WINFIREFOOTMISSION STRIKESTAR BROSEFOREVER FOLKSPACKING HURRICANEOCEAN IMPACTSPECIAL HEDGE — wonPERFECT PAIRINGSUPER GOLDENDRAGONCHARITY TOGETHERSHARPEN BRIGHTILLUMINOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 124

PLACE

1 82

11 29.5

14 24

QUINELLA

11,14 385

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 626.5

1,14 694

11,14 98

FORECAST

11,14 831

TIERCE

11,14,1 34,195

TRIO

1,11,14 6,949

FIRST 4

1,4,11,14 46,418

QUARTET

11,14,1,4 698,334

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/11 662.5

5/14 80.5