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Sha Tin · 2025-10-19 · 09:25

Race 9

Class 3 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2025-10-19 was Class 3 over 1400m. GRACIOUS EXPRESS, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won, with EVERYONE'S STAR second and HAROLD WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite BRILLIANT EXPRESS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1:20.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GRACIOUS EXPRESS Closed strongly 1:20.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 14 28.0
2 3 EVERYONE'S STAR Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 10 5.3 1/2
3 5 HAROLD WIN Closed strongly C L Chau · K W Lui 2 4.8 2
4 9 OUTGATE Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 17.0 3
5 12 STAR MAC Closed strongly R Kingscote · D A Hayes 7 10.0 3-1/4
6 1 BRILLIANT EXPRESS Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 5 4.3 3-1/4
7 11 SMART AVENUE Closed strongly K Teetan · C H Yip 6 34.0 3-1/4
8 7 GHORGAN A Badel · K L Man 9 93.0 3-1/2
9 14 THOUSAND SPIRIT Led early L Hewitson · M Newnham 11 77.0 3-3/4
10 2 FLYING FORTRESS H Bentley · W K Mo 4 7.5 3-3/4
11 8 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 138.0 5-1/2
12 6 MASK RIDER M Chadwick · W Y So 3 44.0 5-3/4
13 13 KINGDOM OF RICHES M L Yeung · C S Shum 1 110.0 8-1/4
14 10 RIDING TOGETHER A Atzeni · D Eustace 8 5.7 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GRACIOUS EXPRESS2. EVERYONE'S STAR+0.5L3. HAROLD WIN+2L4. OUTGATE+3L5. STAR MAC+3.25L6. BRILLIANT EXPRESS+3.25L7. SMART AVENUE+3.25L8. GHORGAN+3.5L9. THOUSAND SPIRIT+3.75L10. FLYING FORTRESS+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S STAR (25.9%) finished 2nd — the winner GRACIOUS EXPRESS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 EVERYONE'S STAR 25.9% 3.87 2
2 10 RIDING TOGETHER 14.1% 7.09 14
3 5 HAROLD WIN 13.6% 7.36 3
4 1 BRILLIANT EXPRESS 10.9% 9.20 6
5 9 OUTGATE 6.2% 16.06 4
6 12 STAR MAC 5.2% 19.21 5
7 2 FLYING FORTRESS 4.9% 20.51 10
8 4 GRACIOUS EXPRESS 4.7% 21.09 1
9 14 THOUSAND SPIRIT 3.3% 30.55 9
10 6 MASK RIDER 3.1% 32.20 12
11 11 SMART AVENUE 2.8% 35.71 7
12 8 NEARLY FINE 2.8% 36.09 11
13 7 GHORGAN 1.6% 62.11 8
14 13 KINGDOM OF RICHES 1.0% 103.90 13
EVERYONE'S STARRIDING TOGETHERHAROLD WINBRILLIANT EXPRESSOUTGATESTAR MACFLYING FORTRESSGRACIOUS EXPRESS — wonTHOUSAND SPIRITMASK RIDERSMART AVENUENEARLY FINEGHORGANKINGDOM OF RICHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 280

PLACE

3 20.5

4 69.5

5 18

QUINELLA

3,4 846

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 233.5

3,5 46

4,5 215.5

FORECAST

4,3 2,351

TIERCE

4,3,5 8,807

TRIO

3,4,5 784

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 2,960

QUARTET

4,3,5,9 104,377

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2,8/3 32.5

2,8/4 685.5