Happy Valley · 2026-01-14 · 20:05
YACHT CLUB HANDICAP
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FORTUNE STAR Closed strongly B/TT 1:39.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 9 | 6.1 | — |
| 2 | 8 | INCANTO STAR Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 9.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | CALIFORNIA BANNER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 8 | 5.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | SMART CITY V-/XB1/CP2/TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 1 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 12 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 11 | 18.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 2 | 6.2 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL Led early H/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 7 | 21.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS B- H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 5 | 6.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | HARMONY GALAXY TT R Kingscote · C S Shum | R Kingscote | C S Shum | 10 | 16.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SHINKANSEN CP/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 9.9 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | FORERUNNER TT M Guyon · W K Mo | M Guyon | W K Mo | 6 | 18.0 | 10 |
| — | 4 | FUN TOGETHER CP/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 8 | — | — |
| — | 10 | APOLAR FIGHTER B/TT C L Chau · D Eustace | C L Chau | D Eustace | 7 | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 ("YACHT CLUB HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-14 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE STAR, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won, with INCANTO STAR second and CALIFORNIA BANNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.6 favourite CALIFORNIA BANNER finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | INCANTO STAR | 21.9% | 4.57 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 15.1% | 6.61 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | SHINKANSEN | 10.0% | 10.00 | 11 |
| 4 | 6 | FORTUNE STAR | 8.2% | 12.14 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 8.0% | 12.53 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | FORERUNNER | 7.8% | 12.82 | 12 |
| 7 | 11 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS | 7.6% | 13.10 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | SMART CITY | 5.5% | 18.31 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | CALIFORNIA BANNER | 4.8% | 20.77 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | NORTHERN FIRE BALL | 4.6% | 21.63 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 4.5% | 22.01 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | HARMONY GALAXY | 1.9% | 53.31 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 61
PLACE
4 20.5
6 20
8 31.5
QUINELLA
6,8 312.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 94
4,8 128
6,8 90
FORECAST
6,8 449
TIERCE
6,8,4 5,496
TRIO
4,6,8 1,088
FIRST 4
4,6,8,9 3,351
QUARTET
6,8,4,9 84,753
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/6 555
1/8 173.5