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Happy Valley · 2026-01-14 · 14:50

SAINT TROPEZ HANDICAP

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 ("SAINT TROPEZ HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-14 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY COMMANDER, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won, with PERFECTDAY second and CALIFORNIA BLITZ third. The 3.0 favourite SPORTS LEGEND finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1:09.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MIGHTY COMMANDER TT 1:09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes 9 7.4
2 6 PERFECTDAY Z Purton · W Y So 5 4.8 1
3 12 CALIFORNIA BLITZ B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 3 7.0 1-1/4
4 9 FRIENDS OF SHAJING CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 4 5.6 2-1/4
5 5 SPORTS LEGEND B/TT Y L Chung · D Eustace 1 3.0 2-1/2
6 3 SYMBOL OF STRENGTH L Ferraris · F C Lor 8 40.0 2-1/2
7 4 POWER KOEPP H Bowman · M Newnham 11 14.0 3
8 2 KING MILES B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 26.0 3-1/4
9 1 WONDER KIT V L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 10 53.0 4
10 7 SUGAR SUGAR V/TT D Probert · C Fownes 6 29.0 4
11 8 ALWAYS AHEAD TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 58.0 4-3/4
12 10 RYUI KOKOROE H Bentley · D A Hayes 7 73.0 5-1/4
0 ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY COMMANDER2. PERFECTDAY+1L3. CALIFORNIA BLITZ+1.25L4. FRIENDS OF SHAJING+2.25L5. SPORTS LEGEND+2.5L6. SYMBOL OF STRENGTH+2.5L7. POWER KOEPP+3L8. KING MILES+3.25L9. WONDER KIT+4L10. SUGAR SUGAR+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick PERFECTDAY (26.1%) finished 2nd — the winner MIGHTY COMMANDER was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PERFECTDAY 26.1% 3.83 2
2 5 SPORTS LEGEND 16.9% 5.93 5
3 12 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 15.2% 6.56 3
4 9 FRIENDS OF SHAJING 9.9% 10.07 4
5 3 SYMBOL OF STRENGTH 6.4% 15.62 6
6 2 KING MILES 6.2% 16.23 8
7 4 POWER KOEPP 5.5% 18.35 7
8 7 SUGAR SUGAR 4.2% 23.65 10
9 11 MIGHTY COMMANDER 4.0% 25.19 1
10 1 WONDER KIT 2.4% 41.95 9
11 8 ALWAYS AHEAD 1.7% 59.00 11
12 10 RYUI KOKOROE 1.6% 64.23 12
PERFECTDAYSPORTS LEGENDCALIFORNIA BLITZFRIENDS OF SHAJINGSYMBOL OF STRENGTHKING MILESPOWER KOEPPSUGAR SUGARMIGHTY COMMANDER — wonWONDER KITALWAYS AHEADRYUI KOKOROE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 74

PLACE

6 19

11 23.5

12 21.5

QUINELLA

6,11 238

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 77

6,12 58

11,12 79

FORECAST

11,6 436

TIERCE

11,6,12 2,734

TRIO

6,11,12 418

FIRST 4

6,9,11,12 381

QUARTET

11,6,12,9 13,975

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

8/2/6 203

8/2/11 2,746

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,11/6,11,12 17,249

8TH DOUBLE

2/6 29.5

2/11 522

SIX UP

6/6/11/8/2/11 62,075

6,8/3,6/8,11/8,10/2,11/6,11 1,121

1 [M Newnham]

1 [Z Purton]