Happy Valley · 2026-01-14 · 14:50
SAINT TROPEZ HANDICAP
Race 9
Race 9 ("SAINT TROPEZ HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-14 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY COMMANDER, ridden by A Badel and trained by C Fownes, won, with PERFECTDAY second and CALIFORNIA BLITZ third. The 3.0 favourite SPORTS LEGEND finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MIGHTY COMMANDER TT 1:09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 7.4 | — |
| 2 | 6 | PERFECTDAY Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 5 | 4.8 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 3 | 7.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 5.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | SPORTS LEGEND B/TT Y L Chung · D Eustace | Y L Chung | D Eustace | 1 | 3.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | SYMBOL OF STRENGTH L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 8 | 40.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | POWER KOEPP H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 11 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | KING MILES B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | WONDER KIT V L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 10 | 53.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUGAR SUGAR V/TT D Probert · C Fownes | D Probert | C Fownes | 6 | 29.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | ALWAYS AHEAD TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 58.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 10 | RYUI KOKOROE H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 7 | 73.0 | 5-1/4 |
| — | 0 | ROMANTIC LAOS CP/TT · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PERFECTDAY | 26.1% | 3.83 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SPORTS LEGEND | 16.9% | 5.93 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | CALIFORNIA BLITZ | 15.2% | 6.56 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | FRIENDS OF SHAJING | 9.9% | 10.07 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | SYMBOL OF STRENGTH | 6.4% | 15.62 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | KING MILES | 6.2% | 16.23 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | POWER KOEPP | 5.5% | 18.35 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | SUGAR SUGAR | 4.2% | 23.65 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | MIGHTY COMMANDER | 4.0% | 25.19 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | WONDER KIT | 2.4% | 41.95 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | ALWAYS AHEAD | 1.7% | 59.00 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | RYUI KOKOROE | 1.6% | 64.23 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 74
PLACE
6 19
11 23.5
12 21.5
QUINELLA
6,11 238
QUINELLA PLACE
6,11 77
6,12 58
11,12 79
FORECAST
11,6 436
TIERCE
11,6,12 2,734
TRIO
6,11,12 418
FIRST 4
6,9,11,12 381
QUARTET
11,6,12,9 13,975
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
8/2/6 203
8/2/11 2,746
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,11/6,11,12 17,249
8TH DOUBLE
2/6 29.5
2/11 522
SIX UP
6/6/11/8/2/11 62,075
6,8/3,6/8,11/8,10/2,11/6,11 1,121
1 [M Newnham] —
1 [Z Purton] —