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Happy Valley · 2026-01-14 · 12:35

THE APM MONACO CUP (HANDICAP)

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 ("THE APM MONACO CUP (HANDICAP)") at Happy Valley on 2026-01-14 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MAX QUE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with SILVERY BREEZE second and THRIVING BROTHERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1:40.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MAX QUE Closed strongly TT 1:40.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham 3 1.7
2 3 SILVERY BREEZE Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · D Eustace 12 4.6 1-1/4
3 9 THRIVING BROTHERS Led early TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 11 38.0 1-1/2
4 7 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz 8 36.0 2-1/4
5 1 THE BOOM BOX Closed strongly C Y Ho · W Y So 5 19.0 3-3/4
6 8 SAMARKAND CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 20.0 3-3/4
7 10 CHILL KAKA M F Poon · P F Yiu 4 18.0 4
8 11 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B- K Teetan · P C Ng 6 15.0 4-1/2
9 2 KEEFY K C Leung · F C Lor 9 30.0 5-1/2
10 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO B A Atzeni · J Size 7 17.0 6
11 5 ANODE TT D B McMonagle · C S Shum 10 25.0 6-3/4
12 12 RISING FROM ASHES B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 2 46.0 10-3/4
0 JUMBO LEGEND B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes
0 FLYING FORTRESS XB/TT · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAX QUE2. SILVERY BREEZE+1.25L3. THRIVING BROTHERS+1.5L4. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+2.25L5. THE BOOM BOX+3.75L6. SAMARKAND+3.75L7. CHILL KAKA+4L8. AESTHETICISM+4.5L9. KEEFY+5.5L10. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick MAX QUE (38.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MAX QUE 38.1% 2.62 1
2 3 SILVERY BREEZE 15.1% 6.62 2
3 1 THE BOOM BOX 7.2% 13.93 5
4 9 THRIVING BROTHERS 7.0% 14.29 3
5 10 CHILL KAKA 6.8% 14.65 7
6 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 6.8% 14.65 10
7 8 SAMARKAND 5.9% 16.95 6
8 2 KEEFY 3.0% 33.56 9
9 7 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 2.9% 34.29 4
10 11 AESTHETICISM 2.8% 35.20 8
11 5 ANODE 2.7% 36.95 11
12 12 RISING FROM ASHES 1.6% 63.74 12
MAX QUE — wonSILVERY BREEZETHE BOOM BOXTHRIVING BROTHERSCHILL KAKAA AMERIC TE SPECSOSAMARKANDKEEFYVIVA GRACIOUSNESSAESTHETICISMANODERISING FROM ASHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 17.5

PLACE

3 14.5

6 11.5

9 74

QUINELLA

3,6 39.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 21

3,9 139.5

6,9 85.5

FORECAST

6,3 70

TIERCE

6,3,9 821

TRIO

3,6,9 313

FIRST 4

3,6,7,9 2,165

QUARTET

6,3,9,7 19,199

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/6/3 480

1/6/6 1,160

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,8/3,6,9 31,428

4TH DOUBLE

6/3 91

6/6 97