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Happy Valley · 2026-07-08 · 10:30

KICK OFF HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course B 11 runners

Race 1 ("KICK OFF HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-08 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY UNITED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won, with COUNTRY DANCER second and SOLAR RIVER third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.73 #4 CONSPIRATOR — Code 92

Result

Official · 0:56.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAPPY UNITED TT 0:56.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 1 3.0
2 1 COUNTRY DANCER E A Atzeni · J Size 9 9.7 3/4
3 5 SOLAR RIVER CP/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 7 22.0 2
4 6 GLORY CLOUD TT J Moreira · C Fownes 10 23.0 3-1/4
5 2 ALWAYS MY FOLKS B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 8 7.9 3-1/4
6 10 SPICY SPANGLE H/TT C Y Ho · W K Mo 6 4.2 3-1/2
7 8 THOUSAND CUPS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 9.1 4
8 12 BRILLIANT FIRE SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 3 8.9 4-3/4
9 11 CALL TO COMMAND B/TT C L Chau · C W Chang 5 11.0 4-3/4
10 7 HAPPY ACTION B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 69.0 5-3/4
11 9 FLYING CHRISTIE V/XB/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 11 123.0 5-3/4
0 RATTAN GALAXY V/TT · K L Man
0 FASHION LEGEND V/TT · D Eustace
WV 4 CONSPIRATOR L Hewitson · B Crawford

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY UNITED2. COUNTRY DANCER+0.75L3. SOLAR RIVER+2L4. GLORY CLOUD+3.25L5. ALWAYS MY FOLKS+3.25L6. SPICY SPANGLE+3.5L7. THOUSAND CUPS+4L8. BRILLIANT FIRE+4.75L9. CALL TO COMMAND+4.75L10. HAPPY ACTION+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick HAPPY UNITED (24.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 HAPPY UNITED 24.7% 4.05 1
2 2 ALWAYS MY FOLKS 18.6% 5.38 5
3 10 SPICY SPANGLE 10.0% 9.96 6
4 1 COUNTRY DANCER 9.9% 10.10 2
5 12 BRILLIANT FIRE 8.6% 11.59 8
6 6 GLORY CLOUD 6.4% 15.65 4
7 11 CALL TO COMMAND 6.1% 16.41 9
8 5 SOLAR RIVER 5.3% 18.77 3
9 8 THOUSAND CUPS 5.0% 19.98 7
10 7 HAPPY ACTION 4.0% 24.94 10
11 9 FLYING CHRISTIE 1.4% 73.95 11
HAPPY UNITED — wonALWAYS MY FOLKSSPICY SPANGLECOUNTRY DANCERBRILLIANT FIREGLORY CLOUDCALL TO COMMANDSOLAR RIVERTHOUSAND CUPSHAPPY ACTIONFLYING CHRISTIE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 30.5

PLACE

1 30.5

3 13

5 56.5

QUINELLA

1,3 167.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 65

1,5 269.5

3,5 112.5

FORECAST

3,1 308

TIERCE

3,1,5 4,300

TRIO

1,3,5 1,129

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 2,925

QUARTET

3,1,5,6 43,825