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Happy Valley · 2026-07-08 · 14:50

PENALTY SHOOTOUT HANDICAP

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 ("PENALTY SHOOTOUT HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINGS OF WAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won, with TARGET AUDIENCE second and DO YOU JUST third. The 3.8 favourite AURIO finished 7th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.73 #10 FRIENDS OF SHAJING — Weight Change

Result

Official · 1:09.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 WINGS OF WAR B 1:09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 5.1
2 4 TARGET AUDIENCE TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 4.7 NOSE
3 3 DO YOU JUST CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 32.0 1-1/4
4 6 POWER KOEPP B A Badel · M Newnham 7 20.0 1-1/4
5 10 FRIENDS OF SHAJING TT C L Chau · W K Mo 10 9.4 1-1/2
6 12 CENTRAL BANK XB- L Hewitson · D Eustace 12 51.0 2-3/4
7 1 AURIO SR/TT H Bowman · K L Man 3 3.8 3-1/2
8 7 KING PROFIT TT Z Purton · C S Shum 6 4.5 3-3/4
9 2 JUBILANT WINNER B/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 4 31.0 3-3/4
10 9 MASTER CHAMPION CP-/TT- C Y Ho · P C Ng 11 88.0 8
11 5 NORTHERN FIRE BALL TT K C Leung · C H Yip 2 28.0 10-1/2
12 8 HONEST WITNESS B/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes 9 24.0 12-1/2
0 CLASS V/TT · P F Yiu
0 THUNDER KIT H · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINGS OF WAR2. TARGET AUDIENCE+0.05L3. DO YOU JUST+1.25L4. POWER KOEPP+1.25L5. FRIENDS OF SHAJING+1.5L6. CENTRAL BANK+2.75L7. AURIO+3.5L8. KING PROFIT+3.75L9. JUBILANT WINNER+3.75L10. MASTER CHAMPION+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick TARGET AUDIENCE (27.9%) finished 2nd — the winner WINGS OF WAR was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TARGET AUDIENCE 27.9% 3.58 2
2 7 KING PROFIT 15.7% 6.39 8
3 1 AURIO 11.9% 8.38 7
4 10 FRIENDS OF SHAJING 8.6% 11.57 5
5 5 NORTHERN FIRE BALL 6.4% 15.55 11
6 11 WINGS OF WAR 6.4% 15.70 1
7 8 HONEST WITNESS 5.1% 19.78 12
8 6 POWER KOEPP 4.9% 20.50 4
9 2 JUBILANT WINNER 4.7% 21.23 9
10 9 MASTER CHAMPION 2.9% 34.63 10
11 12 CENTRAL BANK 2.9% 34.76 6
12 3 DO YOU JUST 2.6% 38.21 3
TARGET AUDIENCEKING PROFITAURIOFRIENDS OF SHAJINGNORTHERN FIRE BALLWINGS OF WAR — wonHONEST WITNESSPOWER KOEPPJUBILANT WINNERMASTER CHAMPIONCENTRAL BANKDO YOU JUST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 51.5

PLACE

3 76

4 18

11 21.5

QUINELLA

4,11 169.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 226

3,11 259

4,11 56.5

FORECAST

11,4 373

TIERCE

11,4,3 10,783

TRIO

3,4,11 1,629

FIRST 4

3,4,6,11 5,578

QUARTET

11,4,3,6 76,658

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

8/9/4 1,539

8/9/11 15,381

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,11/3,4,11 253,522

8TH DOUBLE

9/4 49.5

9/11 606.5

SIX UP

1,7/2,9/3,4/1,8/9,11/4,11 4,634

1/9/4/8/9/11 314,391

2 [C Fownes]

2 [J Moreira]