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Happy Valley · 2026-07-08 · 13:45

BREAKAWAY HANDICAP

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 ("BREAKAWAY HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-07-08 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. DANCING CLASSICS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won, with CANDLELIGHT DINNER second and BUNTA BABY third. The 3.2 favourite ROBOT LUCKY STAR finished 7th.

Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Penetrometer 2.73 #12 BLUE ILLUSION — Weight Change

Result

Official · 0:56.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DANCING CLASSICS B1/TT 0:56.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 10 20.0
2 1 CANDLELIGHT DINNER H C L Chau · Y S Tsui 7 6.7 2-1/2
3 3 BUNTA BABY V/TT Z Purton · K L Man 12 7.2 2-1/2
4 9 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT P N Wong · A S Cruz 5 11.0 2-1/2
5 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 2 7.2 2-1/2
6 7 DRAGON FOUR SEAS B/TT K C Leung · J Richards 9 35.0 2-3/4
7 11 ROBOT LUCKY STAR Y L Chung · M Newnham 3 3.2 3
8 12 BLUE ILLUSION B/TT R Kingscote · P C Ng 6 47.0 5
9 2 ETERNAL FORTUNE B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 1 4.6 5-1/4
10 6 DUKE ATREIDES TT- L Hewitson · B Crawford 8 73.0 8
11 10 COPPER CORE XB/E1/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 11 157.0 8
12 4 CASA OF HONOR XB M F Poon · C W Chang 4 17.0 9-1/4
0 YOUNG EMPEROR TT · D Eustace
0 HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DANCING CLASSICS2. CANDLELIGHT DINNER+2.5L3. BUNTA BABY+2.5L4. PARENTS' LOVE+2.5L5. CALIFORNIA BLITZ+2.5L6. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+2.75L7. ROBOT LUCKY STAR+3L8. BLUE ILLUSION+5L9. ETERNAL FORTUNE+5.25L10. DUKE ATREIDES+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick ETERNAL FORTUNE (24.6%) finished 9th — the winner DANCING CLASSICS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ETERNAL FORTUNE 24.6% 4.07 9
2 11 ROBOT LUCKY STAR 13.8% 7.23 7
3 5 CALIFORNIA BLITZ 12.8% 7.81 5
4 3 BUNTA BABY 11.6% 8.61 3
5 9 PARENTS' LOVE 9.5% 10.58 4
6 8 DANCING CLASSICS 8.5% 11.72 1
7 1 CANDLELIGHT DINNER 5.8% 17.21 2
8 4 CASA OF HONOR 3.8% 26.14 12
9 7 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 3.0% 33.31 6
10 12 BLUE ILLUSION 2.8% 35.32 8
11 6 DUKE ATREIDES 2.4% 42.09 10
12 10 COPPER CORE 1.4% 73.66 11
ETERNAL FORTUNEROBOT LUCKY STARCALIFORNIA BLITZBUNTA BABYPARENTS' LOVEDANCING CLASSICS — wonCANDLELIGHT DINNERCASA OF HONORDRAGON FOUR SEASBLUE ILLUSIONDUKE ATREIDESCOPPER CORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 202

PLACE

1 21

3 20

8 55

QUINELLA

1,8 729.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 58.5

1,8 208

3,8 167

FORECAST

8,1 1,169

TIERCE

8,1,3 5,821

TRIO

1,3,8 901

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 2,221

QUARTET

8,1,3,9 63,379

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,4/1,3,8 30,385

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 23.5

4/8 331.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,9,12/2,3,4/Any Combination 6,881