沙田 · 2020-06-27
第 4場
2020-06-27沙田第4場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、K L Man訓練的E STAR勝出，贏出HD。SMART LEADER獲得亞軍；FLYING BONUS獲得季軍。5.3倍大熱門SMART LEADER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | E STAR H 1.08.31 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 5 | 6.3 | HD |
| 2 | 5 | SMART LEADER B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.3 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | FLYING BONUS C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 14 | 9.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | TEMPLE OF HEAVEN XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 8 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 10 | 8.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | TOTAL EXCESS TT Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 4 | 8.6 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | HARDLY SWEARS H A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 5.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 13 | BRIGHT VISION B1 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | STAY CHILL M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 272.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | PRINCE OF FROG H/P/XB B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 12 | 45.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | TELECOM ELITE M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 190.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | TOM'S STYLE TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 6.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | ORIENTAL AMIGO H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 13 | 216.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 1 | STYLING CITY B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 11 | 40.0 | 12 |
| — | 0 | SMOOTHIES K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOTAL EXCESS | 19.5% | 5.13 | 6 |
| 2 | 6 | E STAR | 16.7% | 6.00 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 14.7% | 6.80 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | SMART LEADER | 13.8% | 7.26 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | HARDLY SWEARS | 10.1% | 9.89 | 7 |
| 6 | 12 | TOM'S STYLE | 6.7% | 15.00 | 12 |
| 7 | 4 | TEMPLE OF HEAVEN | 4.2% | 24.01 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | FLYING BONUS | 3.8% | 26.27 | 3 |
| 9 | 13 | BRIGHT VISION | 3.6% | 27.75 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | STYLING CITY | 3.4% | 29.57 | 14 |
| 11 | 2 | PRINCE OF FROG | 1.4% | 69.26 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | STAY CHILL | 0.8% | 127.56 | 9 |
| 13 | 9 | TELECOM ELITE | 0.8% | 127.76 | 11 |
| 14 | 8 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 0.6% | 165.52 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 63.5
PLACE
5 20.5
6 22
10 33.5
QUINELLA
5,6 168
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 59.5
5,10 111
6,10 123.5
TIERCE
6,5,10 3,391
TRIO
5,6,10 658
FIRST 4
4,5,6,10 3,060
QUARTET
6,5,10,4 54,525
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,12/5,6,10 10,052
5,7,12/5,6,10 37,572
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 22.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/5 115
7/6 1,088.5