沙田 · 2020-06-27
第 1場
2020-06-27沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由N Callan策騎、C Fownes訓練的DOUBLE TAKE勝出，贏出2。SHINEALOT獲得亞軍；GREAT SMART獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.0倍大熱門TURF BRILLIANT跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DOUBLE TAKE 後段發力 B 1.40.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 4 | 8.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | SHINEALOT 後段發力 B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | GREAT SMART 後段發力 CP/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 13 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | TURF BRILLIANT 後段發力 B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 3 | 5.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | MONEY MARSHAL 早段領放 B/TT H T Mo · D E Ferraris | H T Mo | D E Ferraris | 1 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | DR LUCKY STAR B/XB M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 6 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | WITNESS HUNTER 後段發力 CP-/SR/B2 C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 5 | 8.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | LITTLE GENERAL 後段發力 TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 8.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | HAY RUN 後段發力 XB1 K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 14 | 31.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM P2/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | JOY N FUN LEGEND 後段發力 B-/H/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 11 | 107.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | KEEP WINNING TT J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 9 | 8.2 | 14 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP GOING B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 63.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 14 | 4 | KANBEKI MOLLY SR2 C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 7 | 25.0 | 30-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KEEP WINNING | 17.9% | 5.59 | 12 |
| 2 | 6 | LITTLE GENERAL | 16.6% | 6.02 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | SHINEALOT | 11.7% | 8.53 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | GREAT SMART | 9.3% | 10.79 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | WITNESS HUNTER | 9.0% | 11.13 | 7 |
| 6 | 13 | MONEY MARSHAL | 6.9% | 14.53 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM | 6.2% | 16.00 | 10 |
| 8 | 8 | HAY RUN | 5.9% | 16.86 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | TURF BRILLIANT | 4.8% | 21.02 | 4 |
| 10 | 4 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 4.5% | 22.38 | 14 |
| 11 | 2 | DOUBLE TAKE | 2.2% | 46.06 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | DR LUCKY STAR | 2.0% | 51.13 | 6 |
| 13 | 14 | KEEP GOING | 1.9% | 52.69 | 13 |
| 14 | 1 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 1.2% | 81.00 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 88.5
PLACE
2 27.5
5 21
10 38.5
QUINELLA
2,5 282
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 95
2,10 184.5
5,10 154.5
TIERCE
2,5,10 8,067
TRIO
2,5,10 1,123
FIRST 4
2,5,7,10 1,368
QUARTET
2,5,10,7 39,088
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 18.5