沙田 · 2021-01-10
第 10場
2021-01-10沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由T Piccone策騎、T P Yung訓練的NOT USUAL TALENT勝出，贏出N。LUCKY PATCH獲得亞軍；ENRICH DELIGHT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.9倍大熱門LUCKY PATCH跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | NOT USUAL TALENT 後段發力 TT 1.21.06 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 1 | 21.0 | N |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY PATCH B/H M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 3 | 2.9 | N |
| 3 | 5 | ENRICH DELIGHT 後段發力 C Soumillon · C Fownes | C Soumillon | C Fownes | 2 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | BEAUTY LEGACY 早段領放 TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS B- Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | BEAUTY JOY 後段發力 XB1 A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 5 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | BEAUTY SMILE B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 10 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | PRECIOUSSHIP 後段發力 XB C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 11 | 125.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE B V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 14 | 58.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR 後段發力 XB1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 8 | 90.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | WINNING METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 13 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 9 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 291.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 14 | TSAR K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 116.0 | 10 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 31.6% | 3.17 | 11 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY PATCH | 17.1% | 5.83 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | ENRICH DELIGHT | 14.3% | 6.98 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 10.2% | 9.78 | 5 |
| 5 | 13 | BEAUTY SMILE | 5.6% | 17.91 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | WINNING METHOD | 3.7% | 26.87 | 12 |
| 7 | 8 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 3.2% | 31.52 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | AMAZING CHOCOLATE | 3.0% | 33.35 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | PRECIOUSSHIP | 2.5% | 39.57 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 2.4% | 42.38 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | BEAUTY JOY | 1.9% | 51.53 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.9% | 51.74 | 13 |
| 13 | 4 | NOT USUAL TALENT | 1.6% | 61.33 | 1 |
| 14 | 14 | TSAR | 0.9% | 112.88 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 217.5
PLACE
4 50.5
5 15
11 14
QUINELLA
4,11 303
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 137.5
4,11 103.5
5,11 27
FORECAST
4,11 941
TIERCE
4,11,5 4,517
TRIO
4,5,11 346
FIRST 4
4,5,8,11 1,428
QUARTET
4,11,5,8 65,904
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 38.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,9/4,5,11 283,399
9TH DOUBLE
5/4 1,089.5
5/11 18.5
SIX UP
1/3/11/1/5/4 198,139
1,14/3,4/3,11/1,3/5,8/4,11 1,508
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/5/4 6,216
1/5/11 144