Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 17:13
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. PACKING VICTORY, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with BEAUTY JOY second and FANTASTIC TREASURE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PACKING VICTORY Wire to wire TT 1.21.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 2.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 9.2 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 3 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 3.6 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 9 | 25.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 11 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SEATTLE CHOICE A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 7 | 64.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 1 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | ROMAN TURBO SR/TT- K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 8 | 63.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | TSAR H M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 4 | 65.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 31.1% | 3.21 | 5 |
| 2 | 10 | PACKING VICTORY | 22.6% | 4.43 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY JOY | 16.7% | 5.98 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | FANTASTIC TREASURE | 12.7% | 7.90 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | TEMPEST EXPRESS | 3.5% | 28.63 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | HINCHINLOVE | 3.5% | 28.67 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | TSAR | 3.1% | 31.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 7 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 2.5% | 40.53 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | CIRCUIT THREE | 1.6% | 61.82 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | SEATTLE CHOICE | 1.4% | 69.06 | 8 |
| 11 | 8 | ROMAN TURBO | 1.2% | 80.23 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 27.5
PLACE
1 18
5 26.5
10 13
QUINELLA
5,10 140
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 86.5
1,10 36.5
5,10 50.5
FORECAST
10,5 239
TIERCE
10,5,1 905
TRIO
1,5,10 189
FIRST 4
1,2,5,10 499
QUARTET
10,5,1,2 7,650
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15.5
9TH DOUBLE
5/5 35
5/10 73