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Sha Tin · 2022-01-01 · 14:31

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-01-01 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CROSSFORD, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with TURIN REDSUN second and RISE BRETHREN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite RISE BRETHREN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CROSSFORD Closed strongly H/P 1.34.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 11 14.0 1-1/4
2 4 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly SR H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 11.0 1-1/4
3 2 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT A Badel · C S Shum 4 3.9 2
4 6 SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 12.0 2-1/4
5 1 KILINDINI TT J Moreira · A T Millard 3 7.5 2-1/4
6 8 FEARLESS FIRE XB M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 25.0 2-3/4
7 10 WIN WIN FIGHTER R Maia · K W Lui 9 11.0 3
8 7 TRUE LEGEND Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 7 5.3 4-1/4
9 5 FUNCTION PATCH B/H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 5 42.0 4-1/2
10 3 STORM LEGEND K Teetan · C Fownes 2 4.8 5-1/4
11 12 INDIGENOUS REALM TT K C Leung · K L Man 10 59.0 6-1/2
12 9 GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP/H/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 6 52.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CROSSFORD2. TURIN REDSUN+1.25L3. RISE BRETHREN+2L4. SUPER DYNAMITE+2.25L5. KILINDINI+2.25L6. FEARLESS FIRE+2.75L7. WIN WIN FIGHTER+3L8. TRUE LEGEND+4.25L9. FUNCTION PATCH+4.5L10. STORM LEGEND+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick KILINDINI (35.3%) finished 5th — the winner CROSSFORD was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KILINDINI 35.3% 2.83 5
2 7 TRUE LEGEND 14.7% 6.78 8
3 2 RISE BRETHREN 9.8% 10.21 3
4 3 STORM LEGEND 8.2% 12.13 10
5 6 SUPER DYNAMITE 6.4% 15.57 4
6 11 CROSSFORD 5.8% 17.21 1
7 8 FEARLESS FIRE 5.3% 18.95 6
8 4 TURIN REDSUN 4.8% 20.96 2
9 5 FUNCTION PATCH 3.6% 28.13 9
10 9 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 2.1% 48.23 12
11 10 WIN WIN FIGHTER 2.0% 49.09 7
12 12 INDIGENOUS REALM 1.9% 52.22 11
KILINDINITRUE LEGENDRISE BRETHRENSTORM LEGENDSUPER DYNAMITECROSSFORD — wonFEARLESS FIRETURIN REDSUNFUNCTION PATCHGOLDEN SPECTRUMWIN WIN FIGHTERINDIGENOUS REALM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 144.5

PLACE

2 16.5

4 31.5

11 37.5

QUINELLA

4,11 603.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 64.5

2,11 83

4,11 175

FORECAST

11,4 1,760

TIERCE

11,4,2 6,551

TRIO

2,4,11 580

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 1,704

QUARTET

11,4,2,6 59,384

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/2,4,11 12,594

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 29

4TH DOUBLE

2/4 98

2/11 748